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REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 2.8%
Giuliani	22.4
Huckabee	19.6
Romney	15.1
McCain	13.8
Thompson	11.7
Paul	4.8
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 17.0%
Clinton	43.4
Obama	26.4
Edwards	13.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +7.6%
Clinton +2.0%
New Hampshire
Romney +8.0%
Clinton +5.0%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
See All Available State Polls
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
(Not In Order of Most Likely)
Clinton	48.5
Giuliani	45.5
Clinton	47.0
Thompson	42.0
Clinton	45.0
McCain	48.5
Clinton	49.8
Romney	44.3
Clinton	51.3
Huckabee	42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Why Huckabee Cannot Last                                 

So now the Huck has bowed to the king of the conservative movement and said please, call me and let me explain. When Huckabee openly asked Limbaugh to call him he accomplished two things, he will probably get the call and he acknowledged that Rush has been hurting him politically.

What has Rush said? He said that Huckabee is too liberal on most issues other than social issues. I am not sure how talking with Rush can ease that condemnation among conservatives. 

Huckabee's problem is the opposite of Obama's, his record. Count on the Romney attacks to start scoring big soon because no novelty can survive well supported claims of soft on criminals, illegal immigration and tax raiser charges in the Republican Party.

Romney has done what Huckabee has not, exorcized his demons, or at least attempted to on the issue of abortion. Huckabee still pretends to have never backed liberal policies. A voter will sooner back someone who has "strayed" and admitted their error than someone who simply refuses to admit any error at all.  The question, therefore, becomes whether enough Republican primary voters believe Huckabee has made mistakes.   

Now that Limbaugh has identified Huckabee as a liberal on too many issues the answer to that question is probably yes.  The loudest voice on radio is an enormous voice in the Republican primaries. With Rush out until January 2nd, Huckabee is stuck with Rush's last assessment, and that will probably be enough to keep Huckabee from winning more than one state, if he even pulls off a win in Iowa.

Limbaugh has created an impression that simply will not subside by January 3rd. He will probably reiterate his dislike of Huckabee when he returns. It's hard to see how a Republican wins a narrow vote with Rush against him.  If he manages to win Iowa I doubt he will win South Carolina or any other state, unless he can eliminate the perception that he has liberal tendencies.

• See Previous Calls

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Iraqi Churches Full for Christmas Unlike Previous Years - Shiites Attend Mass in Show of Good Will

• Iraqis Crowd Churches for Christmas Mass
• AP | December 25, 2007
• Shiite tribal leaders attended Christmas Mass in Iraq today
• Gateway Pundit | December 25, 2007
• Six Months That Could Change Iraq
• Slate | December 24, 2007

Hillary's Experience Questioned . . . BY THE NEW YORK TIMES

• Clinton’s Résumé Factor: Those 8 Years as First Lady
• New York Times | December 26, 2007

Edwards Abandons Old Lawyer Habits . . . Consistently Late 

• Edwards Gets Demerits for Tardiness on the Trail
• New York Times | December 26, 2007

Obama Relying on Old Democratic Hope that Usually Does Not Pay Off . . . Students

• Courting Students, And Hoping They'll Actually Cast Votes
• Washington Post | December 26, 2007

Remember that Really Bad Hillary Photo? HERE IT IS

• Sooner or Later, Candidates Will Surely Look Lost
• Washington Post | December 26, 2007



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