December 28, 2007

6 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani 22.1
Huckabee
 19.6
Romney 14.0
McCain 13.4
Thompson 12.3
Paul 4.4
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 16.4%
Clinton 43.3
Obama 26.9
Edwards 13.4
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +7.1%
Clinton +2.4%
New Hampshire
Romney +8.1%
Clinton +4.7%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

The Ref's Calls

Bhutto's Assassination Might Hurt Huckabee and Obama                     

In American politics the events that occur overseas generally only matter if they dominate the news cycle for at least twenty-four hours.  If the story lasts for more than three days because of demand for the story, as opposed to media driven interest, the story will begin to have a major impact for as long as the story lasts. If the story becomes an issue of constant fascination it can change the American political landscape. 

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, while tragic, will likely not prove to impact the American primaries significantly. The story will probably fade by the time Americans go to work on Tuesday morning. The horserace will take over the news cycle on Tuesday and dominate until the caucuses on Thursday.

One can imagine, however, a different scenario where pockets of voters focus on the Bhutto story more than the rest of us and change their vote because of it.  Voters who have underestimated the significance of terrorism in the newly elected president’s next term may be reminded of it and reevaluate their options.

In the Democratic race one might imagine that some Iowa voters have strayed from Hillary and to Obama because they are uncomfortable with her less than zealous opposition to the Iraq war. Perhaps some voters on the periphery might defect from Obama in favor of Hillary's somewhat more hawkish approach. Hillary is not hawkish except when compared to Obama. They might do this because the Bhutto story reminds them that we live in a dangerous world. 

On the Republican side one might imagine that Huckabee stands to lose the most as a result of the story. He is perceived to be softer on terrorism than Giuliani, McCain and Romney because of his distancing himself from the Bush "bunker mentality." This story reminds Iowa voters that terrorism is a danger we must deal with.

This story might aid Romney is drawing the contrast between his Huckabee's approaches to terrorism. This in conjunction with the attack on Huckabee from conservative talk radio might be enough to swing Iowa to Romney.

The Ref - Dec. 28, 2007

 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Obama, Clinton Neck and Neck in Iowa, New Hampshire

Bhutto Assasination and US Politics

Betting on the Election

Huckabee Closes Like a Minister in One View


Yahoo! News: Politics News

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Vice President Dick Cheney, right, finishes administering the Senate oath to Vice President-elect, Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., accompanied by his wife Jill, during a re-enactment ceremonial swearing-in ceremony, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009, in the Old Senate Chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - The new Congress opened for business at the stroke of noon on Tuesday, eager to join President-elect Barack Obama in tackling the worst economic crisis in generations. Democrats celebrated last fall's election gains in the House and Senate.




CNN: Gupta approached about surgeon general post (AP)

In this Monday, Oct. 8, 2007 file photo, Dr. Sanjay Gupta attends a screening of the environmental documentary 'Planet in Peril,' in New York. President-elect Barack Obama has approached CNN's chief medical correspondent, Sanjay Gupta, to be the country's next surgeon general, the cable news network said Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Diane Bondareff)AP - President-elect Barack Obama has approached CNN's chief medical correspondent, Sanjay Gupta, to be the country's next surgeon general, the cable news network said Tuesday. CNN said it has kept Gupta from reporting on health care policy and other matters involving the incoming Obama administration since learning he was under consideration for the post.




Social Security unveils new online application (AP)
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Obama's CIA pick unlikely to face Senate challenge (AP)

President-elect Barack Obama speaks to reporters after a meeting with his top economic advisers at his transition office in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - President-elect Barack Obama is defending his unexpected CIA nominee Leon Panetta, who faced a surge of skepticism in Congress on Tuesday but is not expected to draw serious opposition when his confirmation reaches the Senate Intelligence Committee.




Jeb won't run for Senate (Politico)
Politico - Jeb Bush has decided not to run for the Senate in Florida next year, according to former state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Burris turned away as he tries to claim Obama seat (AP)

Illinois U.S. Senate Appointee Roland Burris makes a statement after departing Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)AP - Roland Burris tried to take President-elect Barack Obama's Illinois Senate seat Tuesday but failed in a scripted piece of political theater staged just before the opening of the 111th Congress. "Mr. Burris is not in possession of the necessary credentials from the state of Illinois," declared Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.




Obama bans earmarks from big economic package (AP)
AP - President-elect Barack Obama says he will bar pork-barrel projects from the massive economic stimulus bill he wants Congress to pass.

Coleman sues over Minnesota Senate recount result (AP)

In a Sept. 3, 2008, file photo Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., speaks at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn. The Minnesota state Canvassing Board is expected to certify the results of the re-count of the race between Republican incumbant Norm Coleman and the Democratic challenger for his seat Al Franken, Monday, Jan. 5, 2009.(AP Photo/Paul Sancya/file)AP - Republican Norm Coleman said Tuesday he is suing to challenge Democrat Al Franken's apparent recount victory in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race, delaying a resolution of the contest for weeks or months.




Former Blackwater guards plead not guilty (AP)
AP - Five former Blackwater Worldwide security guards pleaded not guilty Tuesday to federal manslaughter and gun charges resulting from a 2007 shooting in a crowded Baghdad square that killed 17 Iraqi civilians and injured dozens of others.

Obama names Harvard Law dean solicitor general (AP)
AP - President-elect Barack Obama on Monday chose the dean at his alma mater, Harvard Law School, to represent the United States before the Supreme Court.

Rice set to go U.N. to work on Gaza ceasefire (Reuters)
Reuters - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will go to the United Nations on Tuesday to help with international efforts to arrange a ceasefire in Gaza, the State Department said.

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