December 31, 2007

3 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani 20.8
Huckabee
 18.3
McCain 16.0
Romney 13.5
Thompson 11.8
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 22.2%
Clinton 46.0
Obama 23.8
Edwards 13.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +2.5%
Clinton +3.9%
New Hampshire
Romney +4.7%
Clinton +2.9%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

The Ref's Calls

Bhutto's Assassination Might Hurt Huckabee and Obama                     

In American politics the events that occur overseas generally only matter if they dominate the news cycle for at least twenty-four hours.  If the story lasts for more than three days because of demand for the story, as opposed to media driven interest, the story will begin to have a major impact for as long as the story lasts. If the story becomes an issue of constant fascination it can change the American political landscape. 

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, while tragic, will likely not prove to impact the American primaries significantly. The story will probably fade by the time Americans go to work on Tuesday morning. The horserace will take over the news cycle on Tuesday and dominate until the caucuses on Thursday.

One can imagine, however, a different scenario where pockets of voters focus on the Bhutto story more than the rest of us and change their vote because of it.  Voters who have underestimated the significance of terrorism in the newly elected president’s next term may be reminded of it and reevaluate their options.

In the Democratic race one might imagine that some Iowa voters have strayed from Hillary and to Obama because they are uncomfortable with her less than zealous opposition to the Iraq war. Perhaps some voters on the periphery might defect from Obama in favor of Hillary's somewhat more hawkish approach. Hillary is not hawkish except when compared to Obama. They might do this because the Bhutto story reminds them that we live in a dangerous world. 

On the Republican side one might imagine that Huckabee stands to lose the most as a result of the story. He is perceived to be softer on terrorism than Giuliani, McCain and Romney because of his distancing himself from the Bush "bunker mentality." This story reminds Iowa voters that terrorism is a danger we must deal with.

This story might aid Romney is drawing the contrast between his Huckabee's approaches to terrorism. This in conjunction with the attack on Huckabee from conservative talk radio might be enough to swing Iowa to Romney.  The Ref - Dec. 28, 2007

 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

32% 26%   32%    25%

Trustworthy Iowa Poll Shows Obama and Huckabee with Leads, But Within Margin of Error

Chelsea Clinton to 9 Year Old: "I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately."

Huckabee Uses Old Political Trick . . . It Worked

Iowa: Romney and Huckabee in a Dead Heat




Yahoo! News: Politics News

Romney looks to squelch Santorum's late rise (AP)

Republican presidential candidate former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum speaks at The Cable Center in Denver, Monday, Feb. 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)AP - Mitt Romney hopes his presidential campaign hasn't ignored Rick Santorum's aggressive attacks for too long, as caucuses in Colorado and Minnesota on Tuesday could reshuffle the race for the Republican presidential nomination.




Messy caucuses in Nevada, Iowa raise questions (AP)
AP - After back-to-back fiascos in Nevada and Iowa, the term "caucus" may be on its way to becoming a bad word in the GOP lexicon.

Obama campaign urges fundraisers to back super PAC (AP)
AP - President Barack Obama's campaign is asking top fundraisers to support a Democratic-leaning outside group that is backing the president's re-election bid, reversing Obama's opposition to "super" political action committees, which can spend unlimited amounts of cash to influence elections.

Colo. caucuses allow a view of support out West (AP)

Republican presidential candidate, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum speaks at The Cable Center in Denver, Monday, Feb. 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)AP - Colorado's caucuses offer the Republican candidates for president a glimpse of their support in the Mountain West.




GOP gets Minn. focus now, uphill fall fight awaits (AP)

Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, signs a campaign poster during a campaign stop Monday, Feb. 6, 2012, in St. Cloud, Minn. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)AP - In presidential politics, Minnesota is as close to a Democratic fortress as states come.




Tea party: Warming or resigned to Mitt Romney? (AP)

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters at a campaign rally in Grand Junction, Colo., Monday, Feb. 6, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - Long skeptical of Mitt Romney, tea party activists are either warming up to the GOP presidential front-runner or reluctantly backing him after abandoning hope of finding a nominee they like better.




Romney intensifies fight for social conservatives (AP)
AP - Presidential contender Mitt Romney is fighting to win over social conservatives in Tuesday's Republican caucuses.

Looking to reset campaign, Santorum hits 3 states (AP)
AP - Republican Rick Santorum is planning some last-minute campaigning in each of the three states holding presidential contests Tuesday.

Romney wins Facebook fan primary (Politico)
Politico - The GOP hopeful gained 12,000 new Facebook fans on the day he won the Florida primary.

Newt's last comeback (Politico)
Politico - Gingrich’s tumultuous W.H. bid may leave him – win or lose – in a position of national prominence.

Gingrich woos Ohio's early GOP primary voters (AP)
AP - Presidential candidate Newt Gingrich is campaigning in Ohio in hopes of appealing to Republicans who will vote well ahead of the state's March 6 primary.

Paul invests in Minn. in search of 1st GOP win (AP)
AP - Ron Paul has invested days of campaigning and money for television ads ahead of caucuses in Minnesota, where he's hoping he can eke out the first win of his Republican presidential campaign.

Obama says he deserves re-election, job's not done (AP)

President Barack Obama talks about the economy during an event at Fire Station #5 in Arlington, Va., Friday, Feb. 3, 2012. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)AP - President Barack Obama says he deserves re-election, despite the nation's economic troubles.




South Africa's cautious UN vote for Syrian action (The Christian Science Monitor)
The Christian Science Monitor - Russia and China’s joint veto of a United Nations resolution urging Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to step down has kicked up a firestorm of criticism from the West and from human rights activists.

Obama campaign returning funds tied to Mexican fugitive (Reuters)
Reuters - President Barack Obama's re-election campaign is returning more than $200,000 in donations from the family of a fugitive casino magnate linked to violence and corruption in Mexico who has been seeking a pardon, Obama's campaign confirmed on Tuesday.

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