December 31, 2007

3 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani 20.8
Huckabee
 18.3
McCain 16.0
Romney 13.5
Thompson 11.8
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 22.2%
Clinton 46.0
Obama 23.8
Edwards 13.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +2.5%
Clinton +3.9%
New Hampshire
Romney +4.7%
Clinton +2.9%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

The Ref's Calls

Bhutto's Assassination Might Hurt Huckabee and Obama                     

In American politics the events that occur overseas generally only matter if they dominate the news cycle for at least twenty-four hours.  If the story lasts for more than three days because of demand for the story, as opposed to media driven interest, the story will begin to have a major impact for as long as the story lasts. If the story becomes an issue of constant fascination it can change the American political landscape. 

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, while tragic, will likely not prove to impact the American primaries significantly. The story will probably fade by the time Americans go to work on Tuesday morning. The horserace will take over the news cycle on Tuesday and dominate until the caucuses on Thursday.

One can imagine, however, a different scenario where pockets of voters focus on the Bhutto story more than the rest of us and change their vote because of it.  Voters who have underestimated the significance of terrorism in the newly elected president’s next term may be reminded of it and reevaluate their options.

In the Democratic race one might imagine that some Iowa voters have strayed from Hillary and to Obama because they are uncomfortable with her less than zealous opposition to the Iraq war. Perhaps some voters on the periphery might defect from Obama in favor of Hillary's somewhat more hawkish approach. Hillary is not hawkish except when compared to Obama. They might do this because the Bhutto story reminds them that we live in a dangerous world. 

On the Republican side one might imagine that Huckabee stands to lose the most as a result of the story. He is perceived to be softer on terrorism than Giuliani, McCain and Romney because of his distancing himself from the Bush "bunker mentality." This story reminds Iowa voters that terrorism is a danger we must deal with.

This story might aid Romney is drawing the contrast between his Huckabee's approaches to terrorism. This in conjunction with the attack on Huckabee from conservative talk radio might be enough to swing Iowa to Romney.  The Ref - Dec. 28, 2007

 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

32% 26%   32%    25%

Trustworthy Iowa Poll Shows Obama and Huckabee with Leads, But Within Margin of Error

Chelsea Clinton to 9 Year Old: "I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately."

Huckabee Uses Old Political Trick . . . It Worked

Iowa: Romney and Huckabee in a Dead Heat


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Stimulus aside, Obama vows future budget restraint (AP)

President-elect Barack Obama speaks to reporters after a meeting with his top economic advisers at his transition office in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - To a public wary of government spending, President-elect Barack Obama is offering a salve with his massive economic stimulus package: the promise of long-term fiscal discipline.




Democratic opposition to seating Burris cracks (AP)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid(R), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi(L) addressing reporters on Capitol Hill on January 5, 2009 in Washington, DC. The new US Congress was convening Tuesday at the dawn of an era of dominance for Barack Obama's Democrats in Washington with lawmakers consumed by the worst economic crisis in generations.(AFP/Getty Images/File/Mark Wilson)AP - Senate Democrats are looking for ways to defuse the standoff that has denied Roland Burris the vacated Senate seat of President-elect Barack Obama of Illinois, but maybe not much longer.




Detainees in Afghanistan seeking right for release (AP)
AP - Four men being held as terror suspects at a U.S. military base in Afghanistan are asking a federal judge for the right to sue for their release — a right already given to detainees at Guantanamo Bay.

CNN: Gupta approached about surgeon general post (AP)

In this Monday, Oct. 8, 2007 file photo, Dr. Sanjay Gupta attends a screening of the environmental documentary 'Planet in Peril,' in New York. President-elect Barack Obama has approached CNN's chief medical correspondent, Sanjay Gupta, to be the country's next surgeon general, the cable news network said Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Diane Bondareff)AP - President-elect Barack Obama's reported choice for surgeon general, CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta, could bring a dose of star power to a job that hasn't had that much clout in decades.




It's the economic rollout, stupid (Politico)
Politico - Barack Obama’s elaborate rollout of his economic recovery plan could provide an impressive early victory for his incoming administration.

Ex-Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush won't run for Senate in 2010 (AP)

US President George W. Bush (L) looks on as his brother Florida Governor Jeb Bush speaks in 2006. Former president George H.W. Bush, father of the outgoing US commander-in-chief, on Sunday touted another son Jeb for a future presidential bid.(AFP/File/Jim Watson)AP - Former Gov. Jeb Bush announced Tuesday that he won't run for the U.S. Senate in 2010 to replace the retiring Mel Martinez, saying that it was not the right time to return to elected office.




A rare gathering: Bush, Obama and 3 ex-presidents (AP)
AP - An entire generation has gone by since the nation last saw this tableau of American history: every living U.S. president together at the White House.

End to Minn. Senate race pushed even further out (AP)

Republican Norm Coleman along with his wife Laurie and several supporters announces he is suing to challenge the results of the U.S. Senate recount during a press conference Tuesday Jan. 6, 2009 at the State Office Building in St. Paul, Minn. Coleman lost the recount to Democratic candidate Al Franken by 225 votes. (AP Photo/Dawn VIllella)AP - Minnesota's grueling U.S. Senate race, already dragging on two months past Election Day, has now moved even further from the voters — and into the hands of lawyers.




Experts: Crosswinds a factor in Denver air crash (AP)

Workers move the wreckage of Continental Airlines flight 1404 to a site outside a Continental hangar at Denver International Airport in Denver on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009 from the ravine where it crash landed on Saturday, Dec. 20, 2008. Aviation safety experts said Tuesday, Jan. 6, strong crosswinds likely were a factor in an accident last month that sent a Continental Airlines jet into a bone-jarring veer off a Denver runway and across open, snowy fields before it came to a halt and caught fire. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)AP - It was very windy when a Continental Airlines jet was destroyed while trying to take off in Denver last month, leading aviation safety experts to cite crosswinds as a likely factor in the accident.




Obama names Harvard Law dean solicitor general (AP)
AP - President-elect Barack Obama on Monday chose the dean at his alma mater, Harvard Law School, to represent the United States before the Supreme Court.

Fears mount of Gaza conflict spill over in Europe (AP)

A Palestinian mourns the death of a relative outside the al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. Israeli troops have tightened their military grip on the Gaza Strip with new air strikes and ground battles as Europe leads a diplomatic offensive to secure a ceasefire.(AFP/Mohammed Abed)AP - Government officials and Jewish leaders are concerned the conflict in Gaza may spill over into violence in Europe, with attacks reported against Jews and synagogues in France, Sweden and Britain.




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