January 1, 2008

2 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani 20.8
Huckabee
 18.3
McCain 16.0
Romney 13.5
Thompson 11.8
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 22.2%
Clinton 46.0
Obama 23.8
Edwards 13.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +2.9%
Clinton +3.3%
New Hampshire
Romney +4.7%
Clinton +2.9%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

The Ref's Calls

Bhutto's Assassination Might Hurt Huckabee and Obama                     

In American politics the events that occur overseas generally only matter if they dominate the news cycle for at least twenty-four hours.  If the story lasts for more than three days because of demand for the story, as opposed to media driven interest, the story will begin to have a major impact for as long as the story lasts. If the story becomes an issue of constant fascination it can change the American political landscape. 

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, while tragic, will likely not prove to impact the American primaries significantly. The story will probably fade by the time Americans go to work on Tuesday morning. The horserace will take over the news cycle on Tuesday and dominate until the caucuses on Thursday.

One can imagine, however, a different scenario where pockets of voters focus on the Bhutto story more than the rest of us and change their vote because of it.  Voters who have underestimated the significance of terrorism in the newly elected president’s next term may be reminded of it and reevaluate their options.

In the Democratic race one might imagine that some Iowa voters have strayed from Hillary and to Obama because they are uncomfortable with her less than zealous opposition to the Iraq war. Perhaps some voters on the periphery might defect from Obama in favor of Hillary's somewhat more hawkish approach. Hillary is not hawkish except when compared to Obama. They might do this because the Bhutto story reminds them that we live in a dangerous world. 

On the Republican side one might imagine that Huckabee stands to lose the most as a result of the story. He is perceived to be softer on terrorism than Giuliani, McCain and Romney because of his distancing himself from the Bush "bunker mentality." This story reminds Iowa voters that terrorism is a danger we must deal with.

This story might aid Romney is drawing the contrast between his Huckabee's approaches to terrorism. This in conjunction with the attack on Huckabee from conservative talk radio might be enough to swing Iowa to Romney.  The Ref - Dec. 28, 2007

 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

32% 26%   32%    25%

Trustworthy Iowa Poll Shows Obama and Huckabee with Leads, But Within Margins of Error

Chelsea Clinton to 9 Year Old: "I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately."

Huckabee Uses Old Political Trick . . . It Worked

Iowa: Romney and Huckabee in a Dead Heat




Yahoo! News: Politics News

Tax reform in this election year: It's not likely (AP)
AP - Politicians of all stripes in this election year are clamoring for simplifying the tax code and closing loopholes. But that would mean Americans could lose some of their prized deductions.

Obama bemoans wife being dragged into politics (AP)

President Barack Obama is applauded by first lady Michelle Obama and Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala. after speaking at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 2, 2012. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)AP - President Barack Obama says one of the toughest parts about being president is that his wife has been dragged into the "political realm."




Romney adds to delegate lead after Nevada victory (AP)
AP - Mitt Romney has added to his lead in the race for delegates now that Republican officials in Nevada finished the vote count from Saturday's presidential caucuses.

Gingrich shunned lobbying but hired lobbyists (AP)
AP - GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich says his consulting business never lobbied. But records show that he hired state and federal lobbyists, and some staff left to take lobbying jobs.

Hoekstra's broken English ad draws more criticism (AP)
AP - A coalition of black ministers in Detroit called Monday for U.S. Senate candidate Pete Hoekstra to apologize for his Super Bowl ad featuring a young Asian woman speaking broken English to describe the impact of the Democratic incumbent's economic policies.

Obama: Negative ads will have role in 2012 race (AP)
AP - President Barack Obama says the rise of political action committees guarantees that there will be a lot of negative ads in the lead-up to November's presidential election.

Romney latest pol to join wait-let-me-explain club (AP)

FILE - In this Oct. 15, 1992, file photo President George H.W. Bush looks at his watch during the 1992 presidential campaign debate with other candidates, Independent Ross Perot, top, and Democrat Bill Clinton, not shown, at the University of Richmond, Va. The most telling moment in a three-way debate between Bush, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot in 1992, wasn't conveyed in words. It was Bush's glance at his watch. The president already was battling perceptions that he was out of touch and out of ideas in a time of economic distress. When the TV cameras caught him stealing a glance at his watch, it reinforced the impression that Bush wasn't up for the job. (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds, File)AP - Mitt Romney's remark that he's not worried about the very poor, the latest gaffe in a campaign rich with blunders, joins a long list of wait-let-me-explain episodes in presidential election history.




Obama: US has 'very good' intelligence on Iran (AP)

FILE- In this April, 9, 2007, file photo Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaks at a ceremony in Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, 300 kms 186 (miles) south of capital Tehran, Iran. For the first time in nearly two decades of escalating tensions over the Iranian nuclear program, it appears that world leaders are genuinely concerned that an Israeli military attack on the Islamic Republic could be imminent, an action that many fear might trigger war, terrorism and global economic havoc. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)AP - President Barack Obama said the U.S. has a "very good estimate" of when Iran could complete work on a nuclear weapon, but cautioned that there are still many unanswered questions about Tehran's inner workings.




Super Bowl obscenity a mess for FCC (Politico)
Politico - Singer M.I.A.'s act is likely to be reviewed.

Poll: Obama over 50% vs. Mitt (Politico)
Politico - It's the first time since July that he's garnered more than half the votes in a matchup with Romney.

GOP ends NV vote count; Romney on top with 50% (AP)

Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters at his Nevada caucus night victory celebration in Las Vegas, Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - Nevada Republicans have finally finished counting the votes in their Saturday presidential caucuses.




FACT CHECK: Obama, GOP spin recent energy stats (AP)
AP - You wouldn't know it from the Republicans, but these are boom times for American energy.

Air Force to cut 10,000 airmen, shift aircraft (AP)
AP - The Air Force on Friday detailed plans to cut the service by nearly 10,000 active, National Guard and Reserve airmen next year, as part of a broad move to downsize and shift capabilities around the country to be better prepared for wars of the future.

Conservatives take second powerful post in Finland (AP)

Sauli Niinisto smiles at the Helsinki Music Center after the second round of the Finnish Presidential elections on Sunday, Feb. 5, 2012. A conservative former finance minister was headed toward a clear victory in Finland's presidential election Sunday, according to partial results and a TV election forecast. A projection by national broadcaster YLE said Sauli Niinisto would win 63 percent of the votes, compared to 37 percent for his rival, Greens candidate Pekka Haavisto. (AP Photo/Lehtikuva/Martti Kainulainen) FINLAND OUT. NO SALES.AP - The victory for Finland's conservatives in the presidential runoff marks a political watershed in the Nordic country, restoring the National Coalition Party to the presidency after 30 years and giving it the nation's two top posts for the first time.




Obama tightens Iran sanctions over bank "deception" (Reuters)
Reuters - President Barack Obama signed an executive order imposing stricter sanctions on Iran and its central bank, saying new powers to freeze assets were needed because Iranian banks were concealing transactions, the White House said on Monday.

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