January 1, 2008

2 Days Until the Iowa Caucuses

CONSERVATIVE EDITORIALS

LIBERAL EDITORIALS

POLITICAL BLOGS

Photo Attributions

Click Here for Photo Attributions

 

 

 


 powered by FreeFind
Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani 20.8
Huckabee
 18.3
McCain 16.0
Romney 13.5
Thompson 11.8
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 22.2%
Clinton 46.0
Obama 23.8
Edwards 13.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +2.9%
Clinton +3.3%
New Hampshire
Romney +4.7%
Clinton +2.9%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

 

The Ref's Calls

Bhutto's Assassination Might Hurt Huckabee and Obama                     

In American politics the events that occur overseas generally only matter if they dominate the news cycle for at least twenty-four hours.  If the story lasts for more than three days because of demand for the story, as opposed to media driven interest, the story will begin to have a major impact for as long as the story lasts. If the story becomes an issue of constant fascination it can change the American political landscape. 

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto, while tragic, will likely not prove to impact the American primaries significantly. The story will probably fade by the time Americans go to work on Tuesday morning. The horserace will take over the news cycle on Tuesday and dominate until the caucuses on Thursday.

One can imagine, however, a different scenario where pockets of voters focus on the Bhutto story more than the rest of us and change their vote because of it.  Voters who have underestimated the significance of terrorism in the newly elected president’s next term may be reminded of it and reevaluate their options.

In the Democratic race one might imagine that some Iowa voters have strayed from Hillary and to Obama because they are uncomfortable with her less than zealous opposition to the Iraq war. Perhaps some voters on the periphery might defect from Obama in favor of Hillary's somewhat more hawkish approach. Hillary is not hawkish except when compared to Obama. They might do this because the Bhutto story reminds them that we live in a dangerous world. 

On the Republican side one might imagine that Huckabee stands to lose the most as a result of the story. He is perceived to be softer on terrorism than Giuliani, McCain and Romney because of his distancing himself from the Bush "bunker mentality." This story reminds Iowa voters that terrorism is a danger we must deal with.

This story might aid Romney is drawing the contrast between his Huckabee's approaches to terrorism. This in conjunction with the attack on Huckabee from conservative talk radio might be enough to swing Iowa to Romney.  The Ref - Dec. 28, 2007

 

Thanks to FreeFind for providing the search technology for this website.  

 

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

32% 26%   32%    25%

Trustworthy Iowa Poll Shows Obama and Huckabee with Leads, But Within Margins of Error

Chelsea Clinton to 9 Year Old: "I'm sorry, I don't talk to the press and that applies to you, unfortunately."

Huckabee Uses Old Political Trick . . . It Worked

Iowa: Romney and Huckabee in a Dead Heat


Yahoo! News: Politics News

New Congress opens pledging to rescue economy (AP)

Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass., center, holds a bible as he stands with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif., left, during the mock swearing-in ceremony for Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., right, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)AP - The Capitol rang loud with vows to fix the crisis-ridden economy Tuesday as Congress opened for business at the dawn of a new Democratic era. "We need action and we need action now," said Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Republicans agreed, and pledged cooperation in Congress as well as with President-elect Barack Obama — to a point.




Democratic leaders seek to resolve Burris saga (AP)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid(R), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi(L) addressing reporters on Capitol Hill on January 5, 2009 in Washington, DC. The new US Congress was convening Tuesday at the dawn of an era of dominance for Barack Obama's Democrats in Washington with lawmakers consumed by the worst economic crisis in generations.(AFP/Getty Images/File/Mark Wilson)AP - Roland Burris failed to capture President-elect Barack Obama's old Senate seat Tuesday in a wild piece of political theater, but the Democrats' opposition cracked when a key chairwoman said seating him was simply the legal thing to do. Democratic leaders, set to meet with Burris on Wednesday, were searching for a way to defuse the dispute before it further overshadows the 111th Congress.




CNN: Gupta approached about surgeon general post (AP)

In this Monday, Oct. 8, 2007 file photo, Dr. Sanjay Gupta attends a screening of the environmental documentary 'Planet in Peril,' in New York. President-elect Barack Obama has approached CNN's chief medical correspondent, Sanjay Gupta, to be the country's next surgeon general, the cable news network said Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Diane Bondareff)AP - President-elect Barack Obama has approached CNN's chief medical correspondent, Dr. Sanjay Gupta, about becoming the country's next surgeon general, the cable network said Tuesday.




Obama's CIA pick unlikely to face Senate challenge (AP)
AP - President-elect Barack Obama had to do a little fence-mending Tuesday with the new Congress controlled by his own party — apologizing to a key Senate Democrat for failing to consult on his decision to name veteran Washington hand Leon Panetta CIA director.

Burris heads into pivotal meeting (Politico)
Politico - Roland Burris heads into a pivotal meeting with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and Majority Whip Richard J. Durbin on Wednesday with an unmistakable sense of momentum.

Businessman linked to Richardson donated to Obama (AP)

In this Dec. 3, 2008 file photo, President-elect Barack Obama stands with Commerce Secretary designate, New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, at a news conference in Chicago. Richardson on Sunday, Jan. 4, 2009, announced that he was withdrawing his nomination to be President-elect Obama's commerce secretary amid a grand jury investigation into how some of his political donors won a lucrative state contract. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)AP - A prominent businessman caught up in a grand jury probe whose political donations ended any role for New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson in the Obama administration also was a generous contributor in support of the president-elect.




Coleman sues over Minnesota Senate recount result (AP)

Republican Norm Coleman, center, along with his attorney Tony Trimble,left, his wife Laurie and several supporters announces he is suing to challenge the results of the U.S. Senate recount during a press conference Tuesday Jan. 6, 2009 at the State Office Building in St. Paul, Minn. (AP Photo/Dawn Villella)AP - Republican Norm Coleman filed a lawsuit Tuesday challenging Democrat Al Franken's apparent recount victory in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race, delaying a resolution of the contest for weeks or months.




Transition Team Defends CIA Choice, Reaches Out to Senate Chairwoman (CQPolitics.com)
CQPolitics.com - The incoming chairwoman of the Senate Intelligence Committee softened her critique of the choice of Leon Panetta to head the CIA after being contacted by President-elect Barack Obama and Vice President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.

Safety experts cite crosswinds in Denver air crash (AP)

Workers move the wreckage of Continental Airlines flight 1404 to a site outside a Continental hangar at Denver International Airport in Denver on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009 from the ravine where it crash landed on Saturday, Dec. 20, 2008. Aviation safety experts said Tuesday, Jan. 6, strong crosswinds likely were a factor in an accident last month that sent a Continental Airlines jet into a bone-jarring veer off a Denver runway and across open, snowy fields before it came to a halt and caught fire. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)AP - Aviation safety experts said Tuesday strong crosswinds likely were a factor in an accident last month that sent a Continental Airlines jet into a bone-jarring veer off a Denver runway and across open, snowy fields before it came to a halt and caught fire.




Obama names Harvard Law dean solicitor general (AP)
AP - President-elect Barack Obama on Monday chose the dean at his alma mater, Harvard Law School, to represent the United States before the Supreme Court.

3 men die in Israeli strike on U.N. school in Gaza (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - JERUSALEM — An Israeli military strike killed three people at a United Nations-run elementary school in Gaza City where more than 400 Palestinians had sought shelter from the intensifying ground war in the Gaza Strip, U.N. officials said Tuesday.

RSS For Web Pages
Website Traffic Promotion