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REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Huckabee Leads by 0.7%
Huckabee	20.7
McCain	20.0
Giuliani	19.0
Romney	12.0
Thompson	10.7
Paul	3.7
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 8.0%
Clinton	37.3
Obama	29.3
Edwards	18.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
South Carolina
Huckabee +12.6%
Obama +13.0%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Huckabee +1.5%
Clinton +10.0%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
See All Available State Polls
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
(Not In Order of Most Likely)
Clinton	48.5
Giuliani	45.5
Clinton	47.0
Thompson	42.0
Clinton	45.0
McCain	48.5
Clinton	49.8
Romney	44.3
Clinton	51.3
Huckabee	42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

MEDIA NEEDS REALITY CHECK: Romney Not Out if He Loses Michigan Despite Media Predictions

The pundits declared Iowa and New Hampshire must win states for Romney. He won neither state yet he is the delegate leader. 

Delegate leader? Yes, delegate leader. In a race for delegates, delegates are what matter, not the number of wins a candidate amasses.  One would think many of the pundits do not know this basic fact.   

Romney has made it clear that he will not drop out of the race. He will run in all fifty states. He does not need the media to prop him up to raise money because he already has more money than any other candidate has or will have.

Why does the media continue to predict Romney's demise? Perhaps the fact that the conservative establishment supports him represents the reason. 

Regardless of the reason the predictions will be premature until February 5th at the earliest no matter what happens in Michigan. Bottom line, if Romney leads in delegates or is somewhere near the top after February 5th he is very much in the game.

Pundits that say candidates are finished after one, two, or even five states this year fail to account for the open nature of the Republican race. News channels' need to fill a great deal of time does not justify the incompetent political analysis we have seen lately. We have seen far too much of it this year.  The Ref - Jan. 9, 2008 

First Evidence of Faux Support for a Black Candidate in This Race

One of the consistent problems in polling on a black candidate are respondents who say they will vote for a black candidate but fail to when in the privacy of the voting booth. Some strange force seems to grasp some respondents that compels them to voice support for a black candidate when they do not intend to vote for him or her.

Certainly the polls have not been supremely accurate during this election cycle, but no polls have been so uniformly wrong than those that predicted a large Obama victory in New Hampshire. 

The force that compels the false response seems to rely on a lurking desire to please the pollster. Perhaps the high profile of polling in US politics is to blame. Even those who shun politics and only hear political conversations secondhand in bars or restaurants have heard the familiar refrain, "I don't know who they're polling. I've never been called." 

It is true. Very few potential voters actually receive calls from pollsters. So when one receives a call from a pollster who will report these results nationwide there might be a bit of nervousness that arises built on the desire not to look foolish or backward. 

Perhaps this is the reason that so many who said they would vote for Obama apparently did not. Maybe when they entered the voting booth without any desire to please another, but with only a sense of duty to do what they think is right, they voted for Hillary instead of Obama. 

These people are not racists but merely human. When so much attention is paid by the media to the wonder of a black man seriously contending for the presidential nomination, it is not surprising that some poll respondents respond in a way that they assume the pollster wants them to.  

Certainly other explanations may account for some of the disparity between the polls and the actual result, but some voters who told pollsters they would vote for Obama did not and probably never intended to.  The Ref - Jan. 8, 2008

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

• See Previous Calls

 

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Romney Finding His Message, Focusses Entirely on Michigan

• Romney Homes In on a Message That Will Stick - W. Post | 1/10/08
• Romney Pulls Ads in SC, Fla. - Newsmax, AP | 1/9/08

Hillary Dismisses Polls, Relies on Women and Ground Game

• Clinton: I Didn't Believe the Polls - CNS | 1/9/08
• Hillary Ace-in-the-Hole: Superdelegates - Newsmax | 1/9/08
• Clinton’s Message, and Moment, Won the Day - NY Times| 1/10/08
• Women’s Support for Clinton Rises in Wake of Perceived Sexism - NY Times | 1/10/08
• Clinton's Lofty Finish Started at Ground Level - W. Post | 1/10/08
• Clinton the N.H. Comeback Kid - W. Post | 1/10/08

The Primaries

• Candidates Sharpen National Strategies After Tunnel Vision of Iowa, New Hampshire - Fox News | 1/9/08
• McCain, Clinton Look Ahead After Wins - NY Post | 1/9/08
• Richardson to End 2008 Presidential Bid - AP | 1/9/08
• Clinton, Obama Dig in for Long Fight - AP | 1/9/08
• NY Mayor Bloomberg Weighs 2008 Run - AP | 1/9/08
• Analysis: Almost Like Two GOP Primaries - AP | 1/9/08
• Pace Quickens in Wide-Open Races - W. Post | 1/10/08

Obama the "Insurgent" Sharpens His Attacks

• Obama: We Are the Insurgent Campaign - Newsmax | 1/9/08
• Slight of King Could Linger for Voters - NY Sun | 1/10/08
• Obama Is Set Back by a Remarkable Upset - NY Sun | 1/9/08
• Obama Hints of Sharpening Tactics - NY Sun | 1/9/08
• Rove: Obama's 'Smarmy, Prissy' Slap Helped Clinton
  CNS | 1/9/08
• Dividing Up Delegates - Why did Obama get as many as Clinton in New Hampshire, when he finished in second place? - Slate | 1/9/08
• Big Nevada Union Backs Obama - AP | 1/9/08
• Obama Swipes at Clinton, but Takes Aim at Bush - NY Times | 1/10/08

Giuliani Falls Behind in Florida While Practically Living There

• Giuliani Focuses on Florida After Loss - Newsmax, AP | 1/8/08
• Giuliani Falls Behind in The Ref's Florida Averages, Political Ref | 1/10/08

Michigan Primary

• Michigan Next, G.O.P. Rivals Turn to the Economy - NY Times | 1/10/08

Yahoo! News: Politics News AP Exclusive: Pentagon gun was from Memphis police (AP) AP - Two guns used in high-profile shootings this year at the Pentagon and a Las Vegas courthouse both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tenn. Pelosi confident House will pass health care bill (AP) AP - House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Saturday she's confident the House will pass health care legislation and dismissed Republican criticism that she did not have enough votes for the measure. Obama, Medvedev encouraged on arms talks accord (AP) AP - President Barack Obama on Saturday had what the White House described as an "encouraging" phone conversation with Russian President Dmitrty Medvedev as the two countries sought to work out the remaining issues on a treaty to significantly reduce nuclear arsenals. W.H. plan to remake education law (Politico) Politico - The plan undoes much of No Child Left Behind. A POLITICO survey: The tea party's least favorite Republicans (Politico) Politico - A survey of grass-roots tea party leaders cites John McCain as the largest GOP disappointment. Catholic hospitals support health care bill (AP) AP - A group representing Catholic hospitals Saturday rallied behind President Barack Obama's health care bill ahead of a House vote in which anti-abortion lawmakers could play a decisive role. Despite brashness, Bunning still a hero in Ky. (AP) AP - Irascible Republican U.S. Sen. Jim Bunning has been a pariah among his congressional colleagues. Back in the conservative swath of northern Kentucky he calls home, though, he's being heralded as a hero. Colombians vote to renew tainted Congress (AFP) AFP - Colombians vote Sunday to renew both houses of their scandal-tainted Congress as major political parties choose candidates for the May election to succeed President Alvaro Uribe. AP Source: Colo. woman held in terror probe (AP) AP - A U.S. official says a Colorado woman has been detained in Ireland in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate a Swedish cartoonist whose sketch offended many Muslims. States scramble after high court election ruling (AP) AP - The U.S. Supreme Court's rejection of decades-old campaign spending limits gives states scant time to face an election-year dilemma: brace for a flood of new money in politics, or find new ways to rein it in. US gov't knew about NJ man before Yemen arrest (AP) AP - A law enforcement official says the U.S. government knew about the New Jersey man charged in Yemen with being a member of al-Qaida, even before Yemeni officials arrested him. Serbian police detain 9 over alleged war crimes (AP) AP - Serbian police have detained nine former paramilitary fighters suspected of killing civilians and looting homes during the Kosovo war, a war crimes prosecutor said Saturday. Port Authority, developer continue WTC talks (AP) AP - Both sides negotiating a new completion plan for the World Trade Center site say they're continuing to talk despite a deadline. Russia-US nuclear treaty ready soon: Kremlin (AFP) AFP - US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev have agreed that Washington and Moscow are close to reaching agreement on a new nuclear disarmament treaty, the Kremlin said. Agency places shotgun order: FBI? No, Education Department (McClatchy Newspapers) McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — Schools may be gun-free zones, but the U.S. Department of Education is locked and loaded. RSS For Web Pages Increased Web Site Traffic

 

 

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