January 10, 2008

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Google
Huckabee Leads by 0.7%
Huckabee
 20.7
McCain
 20.0
Giuliani
 19.0
Romney
 12.0
Thompson
 10.7
Paul
 3.7
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 8.0%
Clinton
 37.3
Obama
 29.3
Edwards
 18.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Huckabee +12.6%
Obama +13.0%
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Huckabee +1.5%
Clinton +10.0%
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton
 48.5
Giuliani
 45.5
Clinton
 47.0
Thompson
 42.0
Clinton
 45.0
McCain
 48.5
Clinton
 49.8
Romney
 44.3
Clinton
 51.3
Huckabee
 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

MEDIA NEEDS REALITY CHECK: Romney Not Out if He Loses Michigan Despite Media Predictions

The pundits declared Iowa and New Hampshire must win states for Romney. He won neither state yet he is the delegate leader. 

Delegate leader? Yes, delegate leader. In a race for delegates, delegates are what matter, not the number of wins a candidate amasses.  One would think many of the pundits do not know this basic fact.   

Romney has made it clear that he will not drop out of the race. He will run in all fifty states. He does not need the media to prop him up to raise money because he already has more money than any other candidate has or will have.

Why does the media continue to predict Romney's demise? Perhaps the fact that the conservative establishment supports him represents the reason. 

Regardless of the reason the predictions will be premature until February 5th at the earliest no matter what happens in Michigan. Bottom line, if Romney leads in delegates or is somewhere near the top after February 5th he is very much in the game.

Pundits that say candidates are finished after one, two, or even five states this year fail to account for the open nature of the Republican race. News channels' need to fill a great deal of time does not justify the incompetent political analysis we have seen lately. We have seen far too much of it this year.  The Ref - Jan. 9, 2008 

First Evidence of Faux Support for a Black Candidate in This Race

One of the consistent problems in polling on a black candidate are respondents who say they will vote for a black candidate but fail to when in the privacy of the voting booth. Some strange force seems to grasp some respondents that compels them to voice support for a black candidate when they do not intend to vote for him or her.

Certainly the polls have not been supremely accurate during this election cycle, but no polls have been so uniformly wrong than those that predicted a large Obama victory in New Hampshire. 

The force that compels the false response seems to rely on a lurking desire to please the pollster. Perhaps the high profile of polling in US politics is to blame. Even those who shun politics and only hear political conversations secondhand in bars or restaurants have heard the familiar refrain, "I don't know who they're polling. I've never been called." 

It is true. Very few potential voters actually receive calls from pollsters. So when one receives a call from a pollster who will report these results nationwide there might be a bit of nervousness that arises built on the desire not to look foolish or backward. 

Perhaps this is the reason that so many who said they would vote for Obama apparently did not. Maybe when they entered the voting booth without any desire to please another, but with only a sense of duty to do what they think is right, they voted for Hillary instead of Obama. 

These people are not racists but merely human. When so much attention is paid by the media to the wonder of a black man seriously contending for the presidential nomination, it is not surprising that some poll respondents respond in a way that they assume the pollster wants them to.  

Certainly other explanations may account for some of the disparity between the polls and the actual result, but some voters who told pollsters they would vote for Obama did not and probably never intended to.  The Ref - Jan. 8, 2008

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

 

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Romney Finding His Message, Focusses Entirely on Michigan

Hillary Dismisses Polls, Relies on Women and Ground Game

The Primaries

Obama the "Insurgent" Sharpens His Attacks

Giuliani Falls Behind in Florida While Practically Living There

Michigan Primary


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Dems are postponing crucial vote on auto bailout (AP)

The General Motors headquarters is seen on November 18, 2008 in Detroit, Michigan. Democrats in Congress Thursday put off a vote on a bailout for crisis-hit AP - Democratic leaders in Congress sidetracked legislation to bail out the auto industry Thursday and demanded the Big Three develop a plan assuring the money would make them economically viable.




Stevens leaves to a standing ovation (Politico)

This video image provided by the Senate shows Sen. Ted Stevens. R-Alaska speaking of the floor of the Senate in Washington, Thursday,Nov. 20, 2008. (AP Photo/Senate)Politico - Ted Stevens — the longest-serving Republican senator in history — bid farewell to the Senate on Thursday. Although he leaves under criminal conviction, the 85-year-old Alaskan said the future is still bright.




Napolitano is no stranger to Washington scandals (AP)

In this Nov. 13, 2008 file photo, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington. Napolitano is President-elect Barack Obama's primary choice to be secretary of the Homeland Security Department, several news organizations reported Thursday Nov. 20, 2008. (AP Photo/Lauren Victoria Burke)AP - President-elect Barack Obama's likely pick for Homeland Security secretary, Janet Napolitano, is no stranger to headline-making Washington scandals and controversies.




Obama likely to make bad nomination or two, history shows (AP)

President-elect Barack Obama smiles during his meeting with Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., not shown, Monday, Nov. 17, 2008, at Obama's transition office in downtown Chicago. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)AP - No matter how careful he is, sooner or later President-elect Barack Obama is likely to make a bum nomination or two.




Hyatt heiress Pritzker out of running for Commerce Secretary (Politico)

Economic advisor Penny Pritzker, CEO of Classic Residence by Hyatt, attends a news conference by President-elect Barack Obama in Chicago, November 7, 2008. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)Politico - Chicago businesswoman Penny Pritzker, national campaign finance chairwoman for the Obama campaign, has taken herself out of the running to be secretary of Commerce, a Democratic official said.




Ted Stevens' fall points to political shift (AP)

Democrat Mark Begich talks about winning the U.S. Senate seat for Alaska against Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, during a news conference in Anchorage, Alaska Wednesday Nov. 19, 2008. (AP Photo/Al Grillo)AP - Alaska's incoming senator is bullish on gun rights, wants to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling and believes less government is better. And he's a Democrat.




Dems: Napolitano emerges for Homeland Security job (AP)

US President-elect Barack Obama speaks to the press on November 07, 2008 in Chicago. Barack Obama's incoming chief of staff, divisive Democrat Rahm Emanuel, reached out to Republicans Thursday with an appeal for cross-party solutions to pressing challenges.(AFP/File/Stan Honda)AP - President-elect Barack Obama is likely to choose Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano to be secretary of homeland security, top Obama advisers and several Democrats said Thursday as the shape of Obama's Cabinet begins to emerge.




Congress rushing to extend jobless benefits (AP)

Graphic shows change in weekly jobless claims;AP - Jarred by new jobless alarms, Congress rushed Thursday toward keeping unemployment checks flowing through the December holidays and into the new year for Americans whose benefits are running out.




The year 2025: Oil, dollar out; Russia, Islam in (AP)
AP - Global warming could help Russia's economy, an Eastern or Central European country could be overrun by organized crime and the U.S. dollar could further decline in importance during the next two decades, says a new report from U.S. intelligence analysts with predictions for the world in 2025.

Calif. court to hear challenge to gay marriage ban (Reuters)

Supporters hold signs during a 'No on Prop 8' rally in West Hollywood, November 5, 2008. (Mario Anzuoni/Reuters)Reuters - California's Supreme Court on Wednesday agreed to hear a legal challenge against the state's voter-approved ban on gay marriage and let the ban stand in the meantime.




EU welcomes Welsh as a minority languages (AP)
AP - The Welsh language, which dates back to the 6th century, got a major boost Thursday when the European Union formally recognized it as a minority tongue.

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