January 11, 2008

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Huckabee Leads by 1.6%
Huckabee
 21.3
McCain
 19.7
Giuliani
 16.7
Romney
 13.0
Thompson
 10.3
Paul
 3.7
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 7.0%
Clinton
 37.7
Obama
 30.7
Edwards
 16.3
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Huckabee +7.8%
Obama +13.0%
McCain +2.5%
Clinton Running Unopposed
Huckabee +1.5%
Clinton +10.0%
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton
 48.5
Giuliani
 45.5
Clinton
 47.0
Thompson
 42.0
Clinton
 45.0
McCain
 48.5
Clinton
 49.8
Romney
 44.3
Clinton
 51.3
Huckabee
 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

MEDIA NEEDS REALITY CHECK: Romney Not Out if He Loses Michigan Despite Media Predictions

The pundits declared Iowa and New Hampshire must win states for Romney. He won neither state yet he is the delegate leader. 

Delegate leader? Yes, delegate leader. In a race for delegates, delegates are what matter, not the number of wins a candidate amasses.  One would think many of the pundits do not know this basic fact.   

Romney has made it clear that he will not drop out of the race. He will run in all fifty states. He does not need the media to prop him up to raise money because he already has more money than any other candidate has or will have.

Why does the media continue to predict Romney's demise? Perhaps the fact that the conservative establishment supports him represents the reason. 

Regardless of the reason the predictions will be premature until February 5th at the earliest no matter what happens in Michigan. Bottom line, if Romney leads in delegates or is somewhere near the top after February 5th he is very much in the game.

Pundits that say candidates are finished after one, two, or even five states this year fail to account for the open nature of the Republican race. News channels' need to fill a great deal of time does not justify the incompetent political analysis we have seen lately. We have seen far too much of it this year.  The Ref - Jan. 9, 2008 

First Evidence of Faux Support for a Black Candidate in This Race

One of the consistent problems in polling on a black candidate are respondents who say they will vote for a black candidate but fail to when in the privacy of the voting booth. Some strange force seems to grasp some respondents that compels them to voice support for a black candidate when they do not intend to vote for him or her.

Certainly the polls have not been supremely accurate during this election cycle, but no polls have been so uniformly wrong than those that predicted a large Obama victory in New Hampshire. 

The force that compels the false response seems to rely on a lurking desire to please the pollster. Perhaps the high profile of polling in US politics is to blame. Even those who shun politics and only hear political conversations secondhand in bars or restaurants have heard the familiar refrain, "I don't know who they're polling. I've never been called." 

It is true. Very few potential voters actually receive calls from pollsters. So when one receives a call from a pollster who will report these results nationwide there might be a bit of nervousness that arises built on the desire not to look foolish or backward. 

Perhaps this is the reason that so many who said they would vote for Obama apparently did not. Maybe when they entered the voting booth without any desire to please another, but with only a sense of duty to do what they think is right, they voted for Hillary instead of Obama. 

These people are not racists but merely human. When so much attention is paid by the media to the wonder of a black man seriously contending for the presidential nomination, it is not surprising that some poll respondents respond in a way that they assume the pollster wants them to.  

Certainly other explanations may account for some of the disparity between the polls and the actual result, but some voters who told pollsters they would vote for Obama did not and probably never intended to.  The Ref - Jan. 8, 2008

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

 

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Obama Receives an Establishment Endorsement

Hillary Holds Back Negative Ads, Conservative Novak Predicts Nasty Campaign

Primaries in General

McCain

Huckabee

Romney

Giuliani

 


Yahoo! News: Politics News

2 Americans killed in drive-by shooting in Mexico (AP)

View of the US Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua State, Mexico on March 2. Suspected drug cartel AP - Three people with ties to the American consulate in a drug-plagued Mexican city were killed in a drive-by shooting, a U.S. official said Sunday.




Dem House vote-counter lacks health care votes now (AP)

A doctor administers a shot to a patient at a hospital ER unit. The fierce and fateful battle over health care reform forced President Barack Obama to delay his departure on a trip to Indonesia and Australia by three days, to March 21.(AFP/File/Martin Bureau)AP - The House's chief Democratic headcounter said Sunday he hadn't rounded up enough votes to pass President Barack Obama's health care overhaul heading into a make-or-break week, even as the White House's top political adviser said he was "absolutely confident" in its prospects.




Social Security to start cashing Uncle Sam's IOUs (AP)

FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2005 file photo, Susan Chapman, director of the Division of Federal Investments, sorts through paper securities pulled from a safe at the Treasury Department's Bureau of Public Debt offices in Parkersburg, W.Va. The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration. It's time to start cashing them in. (AP Photo/Jeff Gentner, FILE)AP - The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration.




Dodd: Wall St. reform 'cannot wait' (Politico)
Politico - Chris Dodd will unveil a revised financial reform bill Monday that seeks to find middle ground.

Ed plan shuffles political deck (Politico)
Politico - Obama's overhaul could mean wins all-around.

Dodd seeking middle ground on new financial rules (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 10, 2009, file photo Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., announces a financial reform package during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington. Dodd is expected to unveil a new sweeping regulatory proposal Monday, March 15, 2010, that will abandon his initial plan for a stand-alone consumer financial protection agency and for a single powerful regulator to oversee all of the nation's banks. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)AP - The senator trying to rewrite the nation's financial industry rules is dropping plans to create a stand-alone consumer financial protection agency and to give a single regulator the power to oversee all banks, according to people familiar with the evolving proposal.




AP Exclusive: Pentagon gun was from Tenn. police (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 6, 2007 file photo, Miami police chief John Timoney speaks during a news conference. Law enforcement officials say two guns used in high-profile attacks, one at the Pentagon, and another from the fatal January shooting of an officer at a Las Vegas courthouse, both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tennessee. (AP Photo/David Adame, File)AP - Two guns used in high-profile shootings this year at the Pentagon and a Las Vegas courthouse both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tenn.




House Democrat says still short on health votes (Reuters)

A nurse at the University of Miami hospital check on a patient while US President Barack Obama is seen on television talking about healthcare reform in 2009. Top aides to President Barack Obama confidently predicted Sunday that his signature healthcare overhaul would finally pass through Congress this week after a year of costly political wrangling.(AFP/Getty Images/File/Joe Raedle)Reuters - White House officials on Sunday confidently predicted quick final passage of healthcare reform but a top Democratic vote-counter said the party still needs to line up more support in the House of Representatives.




Yemen launches airstrike on al-Qaida hideout (AP)
AP - Yemen's embassy in Washington says its nation's air force launched an airstrike on an al-Qaida hideout ahead of a likely terror attack.

White House stands ground on high court criticism (AP)

David Axelrod, Senior White House Adviser, appears on AP - The White House on Sunday defended President Barack Obama's scathing criticism of a Supreme Court decision that allows unions and corporations to funnel unlimited dollars to political campaigns.




AP source: NJ man may have sought terror groups (AP)
AP - A law enforcement official says a New Jersey man charged in Yemen with being a member of al-Qaida traveled to that country with the goal of joining a terrorist group.

Child abuse claims sweep Catholic Church in Europe (AP)

In this photo released by Vatican newspaper L'Osservatore Romano, Pope Benedict XVI, left, meets Archbishop Robert Zollitsch during an audience in his private library at the Vatican, Friday, March 12, 2010. Germany's top bishop has informed Pope Benedict XVI on cases of clerical sex abuse in the pontiff's native Germany and said the pope encouraged him to pursue the truth and assist the victims. Zollitsch said the pope was greatly dismayed and deeply moved as he was being briefed on the scandal during Friday's meeting at the Vatican. (AP Photo/Osservatore Romano) EDITORIAL USE ONLYAP - It often starts as a voice in the wilderness, but can swell into an entire nation's demand for truth. From Ireland to Germany, Europe's many victims of child abuse in the Roman Catholic church are finally breaking social taboos and confronting the clergy to face its demons.




Irish police free 4 in alleged artist murder plot (AP)
AP - Four people, including an American woman, arrested over an alleged plot to assassinate Swedish artist Lars Vilks have been freed without charge, but three others remain in custody, Irish police said Saturday.

Mexico gunmen kill American consulate staff (Reuters)

View of the US Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua State, Mexico on March 2. Suspected drug cartel Reuters - Gunmen in the drug war-plagued Mexican border city of Ciudad Juarez killed two Americans and a Mexican linked to the local U.S. consulate and President Barack Obama expressed outrage at the attack.




Obama's health care legacy hangs on power of Clyburn's persuasion (McClatchy Newspapers)

House Majority Whip James Clyburn of S.C., left, Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif., center, and others leave the White House in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010, after the Congressional Black Caucus met with President Barack Obama. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — The looming vote for final passage of the historic health-care bill is the stiffest challenge House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn has faced in his three-plus years as the lawmaker responsible for counting heads and ensuring passage of major legislation.




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