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REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Huckabee Leads by 1.6%
Huckabee	21.3
McCain	19.7
Giuliani	16.7
Romney	13.0
Thompson	10.3
Paul	3.7
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 7.0%
Clinton	37.7
Obama	30.7
Edwards	16.3
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.8%
Obama +13.0%
Michigan
McCain +2.5%
Clinton Running Unopposed
Florida
Huckabee +1.5%
Clinton +10.0%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
See All Available State Polls
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
(Not In Order of Most Likely)
Clinton	48.5
Giuliani	45.5
Clinton	47.0
Thompson	42.0
Clinton	45.0
McCain	48.5
Clinton	49.8
Romney	44.3
Clinton	51.3
Huckabee	42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Romney's Blunder

On Friday Romney said of Michigan, "If we can’t win here, we can’t win anywhere."  It seems that Romney listened to the pundits.  As I wrote in the last Ref's Call, Romney probably does not need to win Michigan to remain a serious contender for the Republican nomination. 

Michigan, like Iowa and New Hampshire, allows Independents to vote.  Although in Michigan Democrats are also allowed to vote.  Michigan sets up perfectly for McCain, a more middle of the road candidate on the issues.

Unless Romney has made some tortured calculation to the effect that he must make his supporters realize that this is the last stand to properly motivate them, it seems that he simply misunderstands where he is in the race.

Romney's real competition is Fred Thompson.  If he can outlast Fred Thompson in this race he stands to win quite a few states where only Republicans can vote.  Perhaps Romney knows this and, as mentioned before, is simply trying to convey the notion that this is an important election. 

Regardless of the reason, when pundits are foaming at the mouth for your scalp it is never a good idea to give them words to hang you with. The Ref - Jan. 11, 2008   

MEDIA NEEDS REALITY CHECK: Romney Not Out if He Loses Michigan Despite Media Predictions

The pundits declared Iowa and New Hampshire must win states for Romney. He won neither state yet he is the delegate leader. 

Delegate leader? Yes, delegate leader. In a race for delegates, delegates are what matter, not the number of wins a candidate amasses.  One would think many of the pundits do not know this basic fact.   

Romney has made it clear that he will not drop out of the race. He will run in all fifty states. He does not need the media to prop him up to raise money because he already has more money than any other candidate has or will have.

Why does the media continue to predict Romney's demise? Perhaps the fact that the conservative establishment supports him represents the reason. 

Regardless of the reason the predictions will be premature until February 5th at the earliest no matter what happens in Michigan. Bottom line, if Romney leads in delegates or is somewhere near the top after February 5th he is very much in the game.

Pundits that say candidates are finished after one, two, or even five states this year fail to account for the open nature of the Republican race. News channels' need to fill a great deal of time does not justify the incompetent political analysis we have seen lately. We have seen far too much of it this year.  The Ref - Jan. 9, 2008 

First Evidence of Faux Support for a Black Candidate in This Race

One of the consistent problems in polling on a black candidate are respondents who say they will vote for a black candidate but fail to when in the privacy of the voting booth. Some strange force seems to grasp some respondents that compels them to voice support for a black candidate when they do not intend to vote for him or her.

Certainly the polls have not been supremely accurate during this election cycle, but no polls have been so uniformly wrong than those that predicted a large Obama victory in New Hampshire. 

The force that compels the false response seems to rely on a lurking desire to please the pollster. Perhaps the high profile of polling in US politics is to blame. Even those who shun politics and only hear political conversations secondhand in bars or restaurants have heard the familiar refrain, "I don't know who they're polling. I've never been called." 

It is true. Very few potential voters actually receive calls from pollsters. So when one receives a call from a pollster who will report these results nationwide there might be a bit of nervousness that arises built on the desire not to look foolish or backward. 

Perhaps this is the reason that so many who said they would vote for Obama apparently did not. Maybe when they entered the voting booth without any desire to please another, but with only a sense of duty to do what they think is right, they voted for Hillary instead of Obama. 

These people are not racists but merely human. When so much attention is paid by the media to the wonder of a black man seriously contending for the presidential nomination, it is not surprising that some poll respondents respond in a way that they assume the pollster wants them to.  

Certainly other explanations may account for some of the disparity between the polls and the actual result, but some voters who told pollsters they would vote for Obama did not and probably never intended to.  The Ref - Jan. 8, 2008

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Thompson Receives Endorsements as He Keeps Up Criticism of Huckabee

• Human Events Endorses Fred Thompson - Human Events | 1/11/08
• Thompson, In Critical SC Contest, Keeps Up Criticism Of Huckabee - TodaysTHV | 1/11/08
• Fred Thompson Looks for a Bounce in South Carolina, on Heels of Debate - Fox News | 1/11/08
• NY Conservative Party To Endorse Thompson, Not Un-Conservative Rudy - NY Daily News | 1/11/08
• A Combative Thompson Sways Voters - NYT | 1/12/08

Obama and Bill Clinton, Fairy Tales Surrounding the Fairly Tale Comment?

• Bill Clinton: Obama No 'Fairy Tale' - Newsmax | 1/11/08
• Rove: Obama Rhetoric Light as Air - Newsmax| 1/11/08
• Obama Giving Clinton a Race in Her Backyard - NYT | 1/12/08
• Obama Plays Vegas - NYT | 1/11/08
• Bill Clinton Tries to Tamp Down ‘Fairy-Tale’ Remark About Obama - NYT | 1/11/08

Hillary Proposes Economic Stimulus Plan as Racial Tensions Arise

• Clinton Offers Economic Stimulus Plan - AP | 1/11/08
• Clintons Move to Ease Some Racial Friction - W. Post | 1/12/08
• Obama, Clinton Go for Black Vote in SC - Newsmax, AP | 1/11/08
• Racial tensions roil Democratic race - Politico | 1/11/08

Huckabee, the Fair Tax and a Controversial Skit

• Public Radio Broadcast 'Deep Fried Christ' Skit - CNS | 1/11/08
• Huckabee's Tax Plan Is Brilliant - So why is it getting trashed?  - Slate | 1/11/08
• Huckabee Defends 'Fair Tax' - W. Post | 1/12/08

Giuliani Rasises Spending While Asking Staffers to Take No Pay

• Giuliani's Spending Rises as Fundraising Wanes - CNS | 1/11/08
• Giuliani Staffers Forgo Paychecks - NY Post | 1/11/08
• Giuliani's Florida Gamble - W. Post | 1/12/0

Fox News Hatred Fueling Attacks?

• O’Reilly: Fox Vandalized, Attacked - Newsmax | 1/11/08

Polls

• Poll: Clinton, McCain Lead Nationally - Newsmax | 1/11/08

 

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