January 12, 2008

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Huckabee Leads by 1.6%
Huckabee
 21.3
McCain
 19.7
Giuliani
 16.7
Romney
 13.0
Thompson
 10.3
Paul
 3.7
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 7.0%
Clinton
 37.7
Obama
 30.7
Edwards
 16.3
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Huckabee +7.8%
Obama +13.0%
McCain +2.5%
Clinton Running Unopposed
Huckabee +1.5%
Clinton +10.0%
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton
 48.5
Giuliani
 45.5
Clinton
 47.0
Thompson
 42.0
Clinton
 45.0
McCain
 48.5
Clinton
 49.8
Romney
 44.3
Clinton
 51.3
Huckabee
 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Romney's Blunder

On Friday Romney said of Michigan, "If we can’t win here, we can’t win anywhere."  It seems that Romney listened to the pundits.  As I wrote in the last Ref's Call, Romney probably does not need to win Michigan to remain a serious contender for the Republican nomination. 

Michigan, like Iowa and New Hampshire, allows Independents to vote.  Although in Michigan Democrats are also allowed to vote.  Michigan sets up perfectly for McCain, a more middle of the road candidate on the issues.

Unless Romney has made some tortured calculation to the effect that he must make his supporters realize that this is the last stand to properly motivate them, it seems that he simply misunderstands where he is in the race.

Romney's real competition is Fred Thompson.  If he can outlast Fred Thompson in this race he stands to win quite a few states where only Republicans can vote.  Perhaps Romney knows this and, as mentioned before, is simply trying to convey the notion that this is an important election. 

Regardless of the reason, when pundits are foaming at the mouth for your scalp it is never a good idea to give them words to hang you with. The Ref - Jan. 11, 2008   

MEDIA NEEDS REALITY CHECK: Romney Not Out if He Loses Michigan Despite Media Predictions

The pundits declared Iowa and New Hampshire must win states for Romney. He won neither state yet he is the delegate leader. 

Delegate leader? Yes, delegate leader. In a race for delegates, delegates are what matter, not the number of wins a candidate amasses.  One would think many of the pundits do not know this basic fact.   

Romney has made it clear that he will not drop out of the race. He will run in all fifty states. He does not need the media to prop him up to raise money because he already has more money than any other candidate has or will have.

Why does the media continue to predict Romney's demise? Perhaps the fact that the conservative establishment supports him represents the reason. 

Regardless of the reason the predictions will be premature until February 5th at the earliest no matter what happens in Michigan. Bottom line, if Romney leads in delegates or is somewhere near the top after February 5th he is very much in the game.

Pundits that say candidates are finished after one, two, or even five states this year fail to account for the open nature of the Republican race. News channels' need to fill a great deal of time does not justify the incompetent political analysis we have seen lately. We have seen far too much of it this year.  The Ref - Jan. 9, 2008 

First Evidence of Faux Support for a Black Candidate in This Race

One of the consistent problems in polling on a black candidate are respondents who say they will vote for a black candidate but fail to when in the privacy of the voting booth. Some strange force seems to grasp some respondents that compels them to voice support for a black candidate when they do not intend to vote for him or her.

Certainly the polls have not been supremely accurate during this election cycle, but no polls have been so uniformly wrong than those that predicted a large Obama victory in New Hampshire. 

The force that compels the false response seems to rely on a lurking desire to please the pollster. Perhaps the high profile of polling in US politics is to blame. Even those who shun politics and only hear political conversations secondhand in bars or restaurants have heard the familiar refrain, "I don't know who they're polling. I've never been called." 

It is true. Very few potential voters actually receive calls from pollsters. So when one receives a call from a pollster who will report these results nationwide there might be a bit of nervousness that arises built on the desire not to look foolish or backward. 

Perhaps this is the reason that so many who said they would vote for Obama apparently did not. Maybe when they entered the voting booth without any desire to please another, but with only a sense of duty to do what they think is right, they voted for Hillary instead of Obama. 

These people are not racists but merely human. When so much attention is paid by the media to the wonder of a black man seriously contending for the presidential nomination, it is not surprising that some poll respondents respond in a way that they assume the pollster wants them to.  

Certainly other explanations may account for some of the disparity between the polls and the actual result, but some voters who told pollsters they would vote for Obama did not and probably never intended to.  The Ref - Jan. 8, 2008

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Thompson Receives Endorsements as He Keeps Up Criticism of Huckabee

Obama and Bill Clinton, Fairy Tales Surrounding the Fairly Tale Comment?

Hillary Proposes Economic Stimulus Plan as Racial Tensions Arise

Huckabee, the Fair Tax and a Controversial Skit

Giuliani Rasises Spending While Asking Staffers to Take No Pay

Fox News Hatred Fueling Attacks?

Polls

 




Yahoo! News: Politics News

Tax reform in this election year: It's not likely (AP)
AP - Politicians of all stripes in this election year are clamoring for simplifying the tax code and closing loopholes. But that would mean Americans could lose some of their prized deductions.

Obama bemoans wife being dragged into politics (AP)

President Barack Obama is applauded by first lady Michelle Obama and Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala. after speaking at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 2, 2012. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)AP - President Barack Obama says one of the toughest parts about being president is that his wife has been dragged into the "political realm."




Romney adds to delegate lead after Nevada victory (AP)
AP - Mitt Romney has added to his lead in the race for delegates now that Republican officials in Nevada finished the vote count from Saturday's presidential caucuses.

Gingrich shunned lobbying but hired lobbyists (AP)
AP - GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich says his consulting business never lobbied. But records show that he hired state and federal lobbyists, and some staff left to take lobbying jobs.

Hoekstra's broken English ad draws more criticism (AP)
AP - A coalition of black ministers in Detroit called Monday for U.S. Senate candidate Pete Hoekstra to apologize for his Super Bowl ad featuring a young Asian woman speaking broken English to describe the impact of the Democratic incumbent's economic policies.

Obama: Negative ads will have role in 2012 race (AP)
AP - President Barack Obama says the rise of political action committees guarantees that there will be a lot of negative ads in the lead-up to November's presidential election.

Romney latest pol to join wait-let-me-explain club (AP)

FILE - In this Oct. 15, 1992, file photo President George H.W. Bush looks at his watch during the 1992 presidential campaign debate with other candidates, Independent Ross Perot, top, and Democrat Bill Clinton, not shown, at the University of Richmond, Va. The most telling moment in a three-way debate between Bush, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot in 1992, wasn't conveyed in words. It was Bush's glance at his watch. The president already was battling perceptions that he was out of touch and out of ideas in a time of economic distress. When the TV cameras caught him stealing a glance at his watch, it reinforced the impression that Bush wasn't up for the job. (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds, File)AP - Mitt Romney's remark that he's not worried about the very poor, the latest gaffe in a campaign rich with blunders, joins a long list of wait-let-me-explain episodes in presidential election history.




Obama: US has 'very good' intelligence on Iran (AP)

FILE- In this April, 9, 2007, file photo Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaks at a ceremony in Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, 300 kms 186 (miles) south of capital Tehran, Iran. For the first time in nearly two decades of escalating tensions over the Iranian nuclear program, it appears that world leaders are genuinely concerned that an Israeli military attack on the Islamic Republic could be imminent, an action that many fear might trigger war, terrorism and global economic havoc. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)AP - President Barack Obama said the U.S. has a "very good estimate" of when Iran could complete work on a nuclear weapon, but cautioned that there are still many unanswered questions about Tehran's inner workings.




Super Bowl obscenity a mess for FCC (Politico)
Politico - Singer M.I.A.'s act is likely to be reviewed.

Poll: Obama over 50% vs. Mitt (Politico)
Politico - It's the first time since July that he's garnered more than half the votes in a matchup with Romney.

GOP ends NV vote count; Romney on top with 50% (AP)

Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters at his Nevada caucus night victory celebration in Las Vegas, Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - Nevada Republicans have finally finished counting the votes in their Saturday presidential caucuses.




FACT CHECK: Obama, GOP spin recent energy stats (AP)
AP - You wouldn't know it from the Republicans, but these are boom times for American energy.

Air Force to cut 10,000 airmen, shift aircraft (AP)
AP - The Air Force on Friday detailed plans to cut the service by nearly 10,000 active, National Guard and Reserve airmen next year, as part of a broad move to downsize and shift capabilities around the country to be better prepared for wars of the future.

Conservatives take second powerful post in Finland (AP)

Sauli Niinisto smiles at the Helsinki Music Center after the second round of the Finnish Presidential elections on Sunday, Feb. 5, 2012. A conservative former finance minister was headed toward a clear victory in Finland's presidential election Sunday, according to partial results and a TV election forecast. A projection by national broadcaster YLE said Sauli Niinisto would win 63 percent of the votes, compared to 37 percent for his rival, Greens candidate Pekka Haavisto. (AP Photo/Lehtikuva/Martti Kainulainen) FINLAND OUT. NO SALES.AP - The victory for Finland's conservatives in the presidential runoff marks a political watershed in the Nordic country, restoring the National Coalition Party to the presidency after 30 years and giving it the nation's two top posts for the first time.




Obama tightens Iran sanctions over bank "deception" (Reuters)
Reuters - President Barack Obama signed an executive order imposing stricter sanctions on Iran and its central bank, saying new powers to freeze assets were needed because Iranian banks were concealing transactions, the White House said on Monday.

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