January 18, 2008

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  • 1/19 - Nevada
  • 1/19 - South Carolina Republicans
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  • 1/26 - South Carolina Democrats
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CLICK HERE FOR DELEGATE COUNT

McCain
29.6
Huckabee
20.1
Romney
14.4
Giuliani
12.6
Thompson
9.1
Paul
4.0
Clinton
42.3
Obama
33.4
Edwards
12.3
McCain +4.0%
Obama +9.3%
McCain +2.6%
Clinton +18.4%
McCain and Romney TIED
Clinton +0.5%
Clinton
48.5
Giuliani
45.5
Clinton
47.0
Thompson
42.0
Clinton
45.0
McCain
48.5
Clinton
49.8
Romney
44.3
Clinton
51.3
Huckabee
42.0

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior


Yahoo! News: Politics News

2 Americans killed in drive-by shooting in Mexico (AP)

View of the US Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua State, Mexico on March 2. Suspected drug cartel AP - Three people with ties to the American consulate in a drug-plagued Mexican city were killed in a drive-by shooting, a U.S. official said Sunday.




AP Exclusive: Pentagon gun was from Tenn. police (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 6, 2007 file photo, Miami police chief John Timoney speaks during a news conference.  Law enforcement officials say two guns used in high-profile attacks, one at the Pentagon, and another from the fatal January shooting of an officer at a Las Vegas courthouse, both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tennessee. (AP Photo/David Adame, File)AP - Two guns used in high-profile shootings this year at the Pentagon and a Las Vegas courthouse both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tenn.




Social Security to start cashing Uncle Sam's IOUs (AP)

FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2005 file photo, Susan Chapman, director of the Division of Federal Investments, sorts through paper securities pulled from a safe at the Treasury Department's Bureau of Public Debt offices in Parkersburg, W.Va. The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration. It's time to start cashing them in. (AP Photo/Jeff Gentner, FILE)AP - The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration.




Moderates' demand for Obama wanes (Politico)
Politico - Some Democrats are unenthusiastic about riding the president's coattails this year.

W.H. plan to remake education law (Politico)
Politico - The plan undoes much of No Child Left Behind.

Dodd seeking middle ground on new financial rules (AP)

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn. gestures during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. Unable to muster bipartisan agreement on key banking provisions, Dodd said he will offer his own version of a sweeping overhaul of financial regulations without Republican support. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)AP - The senator trying to rewrite the nation's financial industry rules is dropping plans to create a stand-alone consumer financial protection agency and give a single regulator the power to oversee all banks, according to people familiar with the evolving proposal.




US cautious on removing nuclear arms from Europe (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 15, 2009, file photo U.S. President Barack Obama speaks with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Singapore. Obama said the U.S. and Russia would have a replacement treaty on reducing nuclear arms ready for approval by year's end.  The Obama administration is taking a go-slow approach to one of the touchiest and least-discussed national security issues: whether to withdraw the last remaining Cold War-era U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, administration officials say.  (AP Photo/RIA-Novosti, Mikhail Klimentyev, Presidential Press Service, File)AP - The U.S. is taking a go-slow approach on one of the touchiest and least discussed national security issues: whether to remove the last remaining Cold War-era U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe.




House Democrat says still short on health votes (Reuters)

In this image released by NBC David Axelrod, President Barack Obama's top political adviser, is interviewed on NBC's Meet the Press in Washington Sunday, March 14, 2010. Axelrod said Sunday that lobbyists are gathering on Capitol Hill 'like locusts' to try to derail health care legislation, that passage will be a struggle, but that he's confident the overhaul will soon become law. (AP Photo/NBC, William B. Plowman) ** NO ARCHIVES. NO SALES **Reuters - White House officials on Sunday confidently predicted quick final passage of healthcare reform but a top Democratic vote-counter said the party still needs to line up more support in the House of Representatives.




AP Source: Colo. woman held in terror probe (AP)

Swedish cartoonist Lars Vilks walks in the streets of Stockholm. A second American Muslim woman has been arrested in Ireland on charges of conspiracy to kill the cartoonist who made fun of the Prophet Mohammed, The Wall Street Journal reported.(AFP/File/Francois Campredon)AP - A U.S. official says a Colorado woman has been detained in Ireland in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate a Swedish cartoonist whose sketch offended many Muslims.




White House stands ground on high court criticism (AP)
AP - The White House on Sunday defended President Barack Obama's scathing criticism of a Supreme Court decision that allows unions and corporations to funnel unlimited dollars to political campaigns.

For Obama, big agenda and small window for results (AP)

President Barack Obama speaks at the Export-Import Bank's Annual Conference in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. Obama's intense juggling of domestic issues reflects all the realities he faces: a vast agenda, a smaller window for results this year and a need to keep promises to constituencies that will have a huge say in the fall congressional elections.(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - President Barack Obama's intense juggling of domestic issues reflects all the realities he faces at once: a vast agenda, a smaller window for results this year and a need to keep promises to constituencies that will have a huge say in the fall congressional elections.




Holocaust monument in Poland vandalized (AP)
AP - Vandals sprayed anti-Semitic graffiti on Holocaust memorials at a former Nazi concentration camp in Poland, desecration that authorities discovered Saturday and are investigating.

Swiss media: 60 people report abuses by priests (AP)
AP - Around 60 people have reported being victims of abuse by Catholic priests in Switzerland, a Swiss abbot said in an interview published by a newspaper Saturday.

Dem House vote-counter lacks health care votes now (AP)

A doctor administers a shot to a patient at a hospital ER unit. The fierce and fateful battle over health care reform forced President Barack Obama to delay his departure on a trip to Indonesia and Australia by three days, to March 21.(AFP/File/Martin Bureau)AP - The House's chief Democratic headcounter said Sunday he hadn't rounded up enough votes to pass President Barack Obama's health care overhaul heading into a make-or-break week, even as the White House's top political adviser said he was "absolutely confident" in its prospects.




Obama's health care legacy hangs on power of Clyburn's persuasion (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — The looming vote for final passage of the historic health-care bill is the stiffest challenge House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn has faced in his three-plus years as the lawmaker responsible for counting heads and ensuring passage of major legislation.

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Obama Praises Ronald Reagan - Obama's Minister Says Bill Clinton did same thing to African-Americans as He Did to Monica Lewinsky . . . Obama Says Such Personal Attacks Misplaced

Of Interest - "Big Science" Killing First Amendment?  Bin Laden's Son - Soviet Military Pride - Tom Cruise and Scientology

Nevada Democratic Caucus Gets Nasty  - Court Sides with Obama Supporters as Obama Lambasts Critics

Mudding in South Carolina - McCain Faces Attacks and the Confederate Flag an Issue Again - Blacks Divided Over Clinton and Obama

The Economy Will Be an Issue This Fall

The Ref's Calls

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DEMAGOGUERY VERSES REASON

Barack Obama shocked many when he said the following of Ronald Reagan: "He tapped into what people were already feeling, which was, ‘We want clarity, we want optimism, we want, you know, a return to that sense of dynamism and entrepreneurship that had been missing.’” 

John Edwards apparently filled with shock upon hearing these words as evidenced by his own words.  According to the New York Times Edwards said, "“When you think about what Ronald Reagan did to the American people, to the middle class, to the working people . . . (he) created a tax structure that favored the very wealthiest Americans and caused the middle class and working people to struggle every single day.”  Edwards Attacks Obama for View of Reagan, NYT, 1/18/08.

Why did Obama shock people when spoke positively of Reagan?  Shock resulted because the far left has linked Reagan to all of the perceived evils of corporate America such as greed, racism, sexism and blind American superiority.  The words of Edwards demonstrate this link clearly.

Ostensibly Obama aims to truly change the course of this nation.  Edwards responded in reactionary fashion.  Obama's words manifest a vision that relies less on class and racial antagonism and more on cultivating a shared American identity.  Whether that vision survives the campaign and can win in such a hostile Democratic environment, however, remain major questions. 

But if Obama genuinely attempts to bridge the divide in action as well as in rhetoric, he represents a potential force that can genuinely shape America's future.  Obama must do more than speak the language of optimism to enact this change, but must face down the race and class demagogues that attempt to dominate the Democratic Party.  The Ref - Jan. 18, 2008 

 

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HARDBALL ATTEMPTS TO CREATE ITS OWN REALITY

Hardball consistently stretches the truth or deliberately states untruths to push its agenda. Chris Matthews has made no secret of his support for Barack Obama or his disgust with Mitt Romney and the entire Republican field with the exception of McCain. 

Tonight Hardball's chief correspondent David Schuster, presumably a reporter, described Romney’s reaction to a question from a reporter as an eruption. Romney's reaction resembled nothing like an eruption, but merely a slightly annoyed but calm response.  See the video above. 

This instance of media bias represents a perfect example of the kind of distortion that makes many of us skeptical of the media.  Chris Matthews is a commentator but David Schuster is not.  Hardball regularly masks commentary as reporting.  It is this practice to which we object.  The Ref - Jan. 17, 2008  

Also, Chris Matthews Admits He Went Too Far in Criticizing Hillary:  Matthews: I Wronged Clinton With Remark - Newsmax, AP | 1/17/08

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THE NEXT BIG REPUBLICAN RACE

Now that Romney has won Michigan we know he will remain a competitor in the race until at least February 5th, Super Tuesday. We cannot say the same of any other Republican hopeful because they all need wins to raise money and remain competitive. 

Because Romney represents the one constant we can reach two major conclusions. First, Romney will benefit from the South Carolina primary regardless of who wins. While some believe that Romney's chief competitor is McCain, he actually loses more votes to Huckabee and Thompson. Both Huckabee and Thompson receive primarily votes of conservatives who would likely split more toward Romney than McCain.

If McCain wins South Carolina and Huckabee finishes in second place, Thompson will likely drop out and Huckabee will be substantially weakened. As a result Romney will gain some votes from both Thompson and Huckabee. McCain, however, will gain few votes from other candidates until Giuliani drops out. 

The second conclusion we can reach is that McCain must win conservative votes to win the nomination. He is in the same battle for conservatives in which Romney, Huckabee and Thompson are engaged. Conservatives rule the Republican Party and they will decide who takes the nomination. Michigan represented McCain's most favorable remaining state because of its loose voting rules.  The remaining calendar features mostly states that allow only Republicans to vote for the Republican nomination. Losing Michigan hurt McCain significantly.

The one major remaining question is who can win the conservative vote? Once a candidate receiving conservative votes drops out, probably Thompson, those voters will go somewhere. McCain must take a sizable portion of them to stop Romney. The next big race, therefore, is South Carolina. Watch where Thompson finishes. If he finishes third or below the race for the newly freed up conservatives begins.  McCain has not fared well with conservatives in the past.  We will see if he or Romney can win them.  For now, watch South Carolina.  The Ref - Jan. 15, 2008   

 

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THE CLINTONS ARE NOT RACISTS

The debate over Bill Clinton's comments has gotten out of hand. It seems that the argument will come to an end after the Nevada Democratic debate where Obama and Hillary agreed that they will put it behind them. Hopefully the parties they represent will allow it to die. 

The controversy highlights the new political variables that now exist because a black candidate has a legitimate shot at winning a major party's nomination. These new variables present an opportunity to put a great deal of racial tension behind us, but also present the risk of inflaming them as well.

It serves no person or group well when the media or a candidate decides to use the race card. Certainly the media deserves some blame in this case as does Senator Obama's campaign, as Senator Obama acknowledged in Tuesday's debate by agreeing that his campaign had attempted to push the story.

Perhaps this will be the last time during the nomination process when racial tension flares so significantly. If it happens again the Democrats are on their way back to 1968 when the tensions within the party manifested into riots at the national convention.  The Ref - Jan. 15, 2008

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