January 18, 2008

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  • 1/19 - Nevada
  • 1/19 - South Carolina Republicans
  • 1/25 - Hawaii Republicans
  • 1/26 - South Carolina Democrats
  • 1/29 - Florida
  • 2/1 - Maine Republicans

CLICK HERE FOR DELEGATE COUNT

McCain
29.6
Huckabee
20.1
Romney
14.4
Giuliani
12.6
Thompson
9.1
Paul
4.0
Clinton
42.3
Obama
33.4
Edwards
12.3
McCain +4.0%
Obama +9.3%
McCain +2.6%
Clinton +18.4%
McCain and Romney TIED
Clinton +0.5%
Clinton
48.5
Giuliani
45.5
Clinton
47.0
Thompson
42.0
Clinton
45.0
McCain
48.5
Clinton
49.8
Romney
44.3
Clinton
51.3
Huckabee
42.0

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Economic crisis, Obama response face new Congress (AP)

Vice President Dick Cheney, right, finishes administering the Senate oath to Vice President-elect, Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., accompanied by his wife Jill, during a re-enactment ceremonial swearing-in ceremony, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009, in the Old Senate Chamber on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - The new Congress opened for business at the stroke of noon on Tuesday, eager to join President-elect Barack Obama in tackling the worst economic crisis in generations. Democrats celebrated last fall's election gains in the House and Senate.




CNN: Gupta approached about surgeon general post (AP)

In this Monday, Oct. 8, 2007 file photo, Dr. Sanjay Gupta attends a screening of the environmental documentary 'Planet in Peril,' in New York.  President-elect Barack Obama has approached CNN's chief medical correspondent, Sanjay Gupta, to be the country's next surgeon general, the cable news network said Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Diane Bondareff)AP - President-elect Barack Obama has approached CNN's chief medical correspondent, Sanjay Gupta, to be the country's next surgeon general, the cable news network said Tuesday. CNN said it has kept Gupta from reporting on health care policy and other matters involving the incoming Obama administration since learning he was under consideration for the post.




Social Security unveils new online application (AP)
AP - The Social Security Administration, envisaging the near-future prospect of 10,000 baby boomers applying for benefits every day, has put together a new online service that will allow people to get their benefits without ever traveling to a Social Security field office.

Obama's CIA pick unlikely to face Senate challenge (AP)

President-elect Barack Obama speaks to reporters after a meeting with his top economic advisers at his transition office in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - President-elect Barack Obama is defending his unexpected CIA nominee Leon Panetta, who faced a surge of skepticism in Congress on Tuesday but is not expected to draw serious opposition when his confirmation reaches the Senate Intelligence Committee.




Jeb won't run for Senate (Politico)
Politico - Jeb Bush has decided not to run for the Senate in Florida next year, according to former state House Speaker Marco Rubio.

Burris turned away as he tries to claim Obama seat (AP)

Illinois U.S. Senate Appointee Roland Burris makes a statement after departing Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)AP - Roland Burris tried to take President-elect Barack Obama's Illinois Senate seat Tuesday but failed in a scripted piece of political theater staged just before the opening of the 111th Congress. "Mr. Burris is not in possession of the necessary credentials from the state of Illinois," declared Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada.




Obama bans earmarks from big economic package (AP)
AP - President-elect Barack Obama says he will bar pork-barrel projects from the massive economic stimulus bill he wants Congress to pass.

Coleman sues over Minnesota Senate recount result (AP)

In a Sept. 3, 2008, file photo Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., speaks at the Republican National Convention in St. Paul, Minn.  The Minnesota state Canvassing Board is expected to certify the results of the re-count of the race between Republican incumbant Norm Coleman and the Democratic challenger for his seat Al Franken, Monday, Jan. 5, 2009.(AP Photo/Paul Sancya/file)AP - Republican Norm Coleman said Tuesday he is suing to challenge Democrat Al Franken's apparent recount victory in Minnesota's U.S. Senate race, delaying a resolution of the contest for weeks or months.




Former Blackwater guards plead not guilty (AP)
AP - Five former Blackwater Worldwide security guards pleaded not guilty Tuesday to federal manslaughter and gun charges resulting from a 2007 shooting in a crowded Baghdad square that killed 17 Iraqi civilians and injured dozens of others.

Obama names Harvard Law dean solicitor general (AP)
AP - President-elect Barack Obama on Monday chose the dean at his alma mater, Harvard Law School, to represent the United States before the Supreme Court.

Rice set to go U.N. to work on Gaza ceasefire (Reuters)
Reuters - U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will go to the United Nations on Tuesday to help with international efforts to arrange a ceasefire in Gaza, the State Department said.

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Obama Praises Ronald Reagan - Obama's Minister Says Bill Clinton did same thing to African-Americans as He Did to Monica Lewinsky . . . Obama Says Such Personal Attacks Misplaced

Of Interest - "Big Science" Killing First Amendment?  Bin Laden's Son - Soviet Military Pride - Tom Cruise and Scientology

Nevada Democratic Caucus Gets Nasty  - Court Sides with Obama Supporters as Obama Lambasts Critics

Mudding in South Carolina - McCain Faces Attacks and the Confederate Flag an Issue Again - Blacks Divided Over Clinton and Obama

The Economy Will Be an Issue This Fall

The Ref's Calls

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DEMAGOGUERY VERSES REASON

Barack Obama shocked many when he said the following of Ronald Reagan: "He tapped into what people were already feeling, which was, ‘We want clarity, we want optimism, we want, you know, a return to that sense of dynamism and entrepreneurship that had been missing.’” 

John Edwards apparently filled with shock upon hearing these words as evidenced by his own words.  According to the New York Times Edwards said, "“When you think about what Ronald Reagan did to the American people, to the middle class, to the working people . . . (he) created a tax structure that favored the very wealthiest Americans and caused the middle class and working people to struggle every single day.”  Edwards Attacks Obama for View of Reagan, NYT, 1/18/08.

Why did Obama shock people when spoke positively of Reagan?  Shock resulted because the far left has linked Reagan to all of the perceived evils of corporate America such as greed, racism, sexism and blind American superiority.  The words of Edwards demonstrate this link clearly.

Ostensibly Obama aims to truly change the course of this nation.  Edwards responded in reactionary fashion.  Obama's words manifest a vision that relies less on class and racial antagonism and more on cultivating a shared American identity.  Whether that vision survives the campaign and can win in such a hostile Democratic environment, however, remain major questions. 

But if Obama genuinely attempts to bridge the divide in action as well as in rhetoric, he represents a potential force that can genuinely shape America's future.  Obama must do more than speak the language of optimism to enact this change, but must face down the race and class demagogues that attempt to dominate the Democratic Party.  The Ref - Jan. 18, 2008 

 

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HARDBALL ATTEMPTS TO CREATE ITS OWN REALITY

Hardball consistently stretches the truth or deliberately states untruths to push its agenda. Chris Matthews has made no secret of his support for Barack Obama or his disgust with Mitt Romney and the entire Republican field with the exception of McCain. 

Tonight Hardball's chief correspondent David Schuster, presumably a reporter, described Romney’s reaction to a question from a reporter as an eruption. Romney's reaction resembled nothing like an eruption, but merely a slightly annoyed but calm response.  See the video above. 

This instance of media bias represents a perfect example of the kind of distortion that makes many of us skeptical of the media.  Chris Matthews is a commentator but David Schuster is not.  Hardball regularly masks commentary as reporting.  It is this practice to which we object.  The Ref - Jan. 17, 2008  

Also, Chris Matthews Admits He Went Too Far in Criticizing Hillary:  Matthews: I Wronged Clinton With Remark - Newsmax, AP | 1/17/08

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THE NEXT BIG REPUBLICAN RACE

Now that Romney has won Michigan we know he will remain a competitor in the race until at least February 5th, Super Tuesday. We cannot say the same of any other Republican hopeful because they all need wins to raise money and remain competitive. 

Because Romney represents the one constant we can reach two major conclusions. First, Romney will benefit from the South Carolina primary regardless of who wins. While some believe that Romney's chief competitor is McCain, he actually loses more votes to Huckabee and Thompson. Both Huckabee and Thompson receive primarily votes of conservatives who would likely split more toward Romney than McCain.

If McCain wins South Carolina and Huckabee finishes in second place, Thompson will likely drop out and Huckabee will be substantially weakened. As a result Romney will gain some votes from both Thompson and Huckabee. McCain, however, will gain few votes from other candidates until Giuliani drops out. 

The second conclusion we can reach is that McCain must win conservative votes to win the nomination. He is in the same battle for conservatives in which Romney, Huckabee and Thompson are engaged. Conservatives rule the Republican Party and they will decide who takes the nomination. Michigan represented McCain's most favorable remaining state because of its loose voting rules.  The remaining calendar features mostly states that allow only Republicans to vote for the Republican nomination. Losing Michigan hurt McCain significantly.

The one major remaining question is who can win the conservative vote? Once a candidate receiving conservative votes drops out, probably Thompson, those voters will go somewhere. McCain must take a sizable portion of them to stop Romney. The next big race, therefore, is South Carolina. Watch where Thompson finishes. If he finishes third or below the race for the newly freed up conservatives begins.  McCain has not fared well with conservatives in the past.  We will see if he or Romney can win them.  For now, watch South Carolina.  The Ref - Jan. 15, 2008   

 

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THE CLINTONS ARE NOT RACISTS

The debate over Bill Clinton's comments has gotten out of hand. It seems that the argument will come to an end after the Nevada Democratic debate where Obama and Hillary agreed that they will put it behind them. Hopefully the parties they represent will allow it to die. 

The controversy highlights the new political variables that now exist because a black candidate has a legitimate shot at winning a major party's nomination. These new variables present an opportunity to put a great deal of racial tension behind us, but also present the risk of inflaming them as well.

It serves no person or group well when the media or a candidate decides to use the race card. Certainly the media deserves some blame in this case as does Senator Obama's campaign, as Senator Obama acknowledged in Tuesday's debate by agreeing that his campaign had attempted to push the story.

Perhaps this will be the last time during the nomination process when racial tension flares so significantly. If it happens again the Democrats are on their way back to 1968 when the tensions within the party manifested into riots at the national convention.  The Ref - Jan. 15, 2008

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