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REPUBLICAN NOMINATION
Giuliani Leads by 2.5%
Giuliani	20.8
Huckabee	18.3
McCain	16.0
Romney	13.5
Thompson	11.8
Paul	4.0
See All Polls
DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION
Clinton Leads by 22.2%
Clinton	46.0
Obama	23.8
Edwards	13.5
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +1.5%
Clinton +3.7%
New Hampshire
Romney +3.0%
Clinton +3.7%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
See All Available State Polls
HEAD-TO-HEAD MATCHUPS
(Not In Order of Most Likely)
Clinton	48.5
Giuliani	45.5
Clinton	47.0
Thompson	42.0
Clinton	45.0
McCain	48.5
Clinton	49.8
Romney	44.3
Clinton	51.3
Huckabee	42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Obama's Best Allies?  Romney Victories          

According to the polls in most states but Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the Democratic Party has firmly set sail for Clinton country. Obama may pull off the early upsets but the wins may amount to nothing more than a strong headwind that ultimately does not matter.

Whether Obama can turn the ship depends entirely on the degree of impact of the early wins. If he wins only Iowa the Clinton momentum will not be stopped. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire it gets interesting. If he then takes South Carolina maybe the massive leads Hillary holds in most states will be diminished and the tide will begin to shift.

Like any resistance a ship faces Obama needs the counter wind to be as strong and last as long as possible to shift the course of the Democratic Party.  The problem for Obama is that he is facing a strongly entrenched opposition, or to torture the analogy a bit more, a massive ocean liner full of wealthy Hillary supporters, and more importantly, women. 

Identity politics has long played an important role in Democratic races. It may be the case that Obama simply cannot persuade enough women that they should vote against their gender. 

Considering that the early states are voting in a compressed time period winning those contests may amount to merely a footnote this time around. External factors will play a more significant role in determining Obama's fate, specifically the media and Republican race. 

If Romney and Huckabee split the early states the interest those contests engender will likely prevent Obama from creating the perfect media storm he needs. If Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Obama can do the same, Obama will be the bigger story and he will get wall to wall coverage.  No other Republican candidate can win all three contests. 

So if one wants Obama to win the Democratic nomination, he or she might want to root for Romney.  The Ref - Jan. 1 

• See Previous Calls

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Huckabee Consultant Ed Rollins Recommended Going After Romney . . . Huckabee Accepts, then Rejects Advice

• Huckabee and Consultant Form an Uneasy Alliance
• New York Times | January 2, 2008

Fox News Acquires Clear Copy of "Cancelled" Huckabee Attack Ad

• Huckabee’s Cancelled Attack Ad
• Fox News | January 1, 2008
• Analysis: Huckabee May Have Gone Too Far
• AP | January 1, 2008

Ron Paul Left Out of Fox Debate

• Ron Paul Furious over Fox Debate Snub
• Newsmax | January 1, 2008
• Ron Paul Raises Record $20 Million
• Newsmax | January 1, 2008

Nader Endorses Edwards: It Might Help in Iowa Where Strong Core of Liberals Reside

• Nader throws support to Edwards
• Politico | December 31, 2007

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