January 3, 2008

2 Days to Wyoming Caucuses

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Giuliani Leads by 2.2%
Giuliani 20.2
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.2
Romney 13.6
Thompson 11.4
Paul 4.0
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 21.2%
Clinton 45.6
Obama 24.4
Edwards 13.8
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
Iowa
Huckabee +2.0%
Clinton +2.0%
New Hampshire
Romney +0.8%
Clinton +5.4%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4 

HUGE STAKES: Tonight Hillary could Win the Nomination, Could be Edwards' Last Stand or Obama's Takeoff

No candidate has spent more time in Iowa than John Edwards. If he finishes third place tonight it will hurt him, and probably end his legitimate chances of winning the nomination, even if it is only by a few points. 

Simply put, if Edwards loses it will not be for lack of exposure in the state, but because his candidacy has been rejected. Edwards performs better in Iowa polls than in any other state. If he loses in Iowa he cannot win anywhere. 

If Edwards realizes that he is finished he may very well drop out. If he does then the anti-Hillary vote will no longer be split. Obama will become the only legitimate alternative. Hillary's double-digit leads in most Super Tuesday states could disappear overnight. 

Perhaps Hillary will make it worth Edwards's while to remain in the race. Perhaps she might offer Edwards the VP nomination if he remains in the race to split the anti-Hillary vote, off the record of course. 

Tonight, therefore, means a great deal. It could determine whether Hillary has a legitimate challenger in every state in Obama if he is not forced to compete with Edwards or perhaps the identity of our next Vice President.

Of course if Hillary wins, as the Ref's averages suggest that she might, Hillary ends both Obama's and Edwards's legitimate chances for the nomination and effectively becomes the nominee. The Ref - Jan. 3  

Huckabee Must Win Tonight

Huckabee is challenging in Iowa and South Carolina.  Huckabee has no chance in New Hampshire.  If Huckabee loses Iowa the best Huckabee could hope for is winning one of the first three.

But if Huckabee loses tonight the opposition to his candidacy by the conservative media will probably finish off his hopes in South Carolina too.  No other Republican candidate faces such strong opposition by the conservative media. 

Huckabee is under siege and simply cannot afford to suffer a chink in his armor. Huckabee must win tonight to keep the train rolling.  The Ref - Jan. 3 

Obama's Best Allies?  Romney Victories          

According to the polls in most states but Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the Democratic Party has firmly set sail for Clinton country. Obama may pull off the early upsets but the wins may amount to nothing more than a strong headwind that ultimately does not matter.

Whether Obama can turn the ship depends entirely on the degree of impact of the early wins. If he wins only Iowa the Clinton momentum will not be stopped. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire it gets interesting. If he then takes South Carolina maybe the massive leads Hillary holds in most states will be diminished and the tide will begin to shift.

Like any resistance a ship faces Obama needs the counter wind to be as strong and last as long as possible to shift the course of the Democratic Party.  The problem for Obama is that he is facing a strongly entrenched opposition, or to torture the analogy a bit more, a massive ocean liner full of wealthy Hillary supporters, and more importantly, women. 

Identity politics has long played an important role in Democratic races. It may be the case that Obama simply cannot persuade enough women that they should vote against their gender. 

Considering that the early states are voting in a compressed time period winning those contests may amount to merely a footnote this time around. External factors will play a more significant role in determining Obama's fate, specifically the media and Republican race. 

If Romney and Huckabee split the early states the interest those contests engender will likely prevent Obama from creating the perfect media storm he needs. If Romney can win Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, and Obama can do the same, Obama will be the bigger story and he will get wall to wall coverage.  No other Republican candidate can win all three contests. 

So if one wants Obama to win the Democratic nomination, he or she might want to root for Romney.  The Ref - Jan. 1 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

How Much Impact Will Iowa Have?

Thompson Pulling Out?  Not According to Thompson Campaign




Yahoo! News: Politics News

Tax reform in this election year: It's not likely (AP)
AP - Politicians of all stripes in this election year are clamoring for simplifying the tax code and closing loopholes. But that would mean Americans could lose some of their prized deductions.

Obama bemoans wife being dragged into politics (AP)

President Barack Obama is applauded by first lady Michelle Obama and Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala. after speaking at the National Prayer Breakfast in Washington, Thursday, Feb. 2, 2012. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)AP - President Barack Obama says one of the toughest parts about being president is that his wife has been dragged into the "political realm."




Romney adds to delegate lead after Nevada victory (AP)
AP - Mitt Romney has added to his lead in the race for delegates now that Republican officials in Nevada finished the vote count from Saturday's presidential caucuses.

Gingrich shunned lobbying but hired lobbyists (AP)
AP - GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich says his consulting business never lobbied. But records show that he hired state and federal lobbyists, and some staff left to take lobbying jobs.

Hoekstra's broken English ad draws more criticism (AP)
AP - A coalition of black ministers in Detroit called Monday for U.S. Senate candidate Pete Hoekstra to apologize for his Super Bowl ad featuring a young Asian woman speaking broken English to describe the impact of the Democratic incumbent's economic policies.

Obama: Negative ads will have role in 2012 race (AP)
AP - President Barack Obama says the rise of political action committees guarantees that there will be a lot of negative ads in the lead-up to November's presidential election.

Romney latest pol to join wait-let-me-explain club (AP)

FILE - In this Oct. 15, 1992, file photo President George H.W. Bush looks at his watch during the 1992 presidential campaign debate with other candidates, Independent Ross Perot, top, and Democrat Bill Clinton, not shown, at the University of Richmond, Va. The most telling moment in a three-way debate between Bush, Bill Clinton and Ross Perot in 1992, wasn't conveyed in words. It was Bush's glance at his watch. The president already was battling perceptions that he was out of touch and out of ideas in a time of economic distress. When the TV cameras caught him stealing a glance at his watch, it reinforced the impression that Bush wasn't up for the job. (AP Photo/Ron Edmonds, File)AP - Mitt Romney's remark that he's not worried about the very poor, the latest gaffe in a campaign rich with blunders, joins a long list of wait-let-me-explain episodes in presidential election history.




Obama: US has 'very good' intelligence on Iran (AP)

FILE- In this April, 9, 2007, file photo Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, speaks at a ceremony in Iran's nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, 300 kms 186 (miles) south of capital Tehran, Iran. For the first time in nearly two decades of escalating tensions over the Iranian nuclear program, it appears that world leaders are genuinely concerned that an Israeli military attack on the Islamic Republic could be imminent, an action that many fear might trigger war, terrorism and global economic havoc. (AP Photo/Hasan Sarbakhshian, File)AP - President Barack Obama said the U.S. has a "very good estimate" of when Iran could complete work on a nuclear weapon, but cautioned that there are still many unanswered questions about Tehran's inner workings.




Super Bowl obscenity a mess for FCC (Politico)
Politico - Singer M.I.A.'s act is likely to be reviewed.

Poll: Obama over 50% vs. Mitt (Politico)
Politico - It's the first time since July that he's garnered more than half the votes in a matchup with Romney.

GOP ends NV vote count; Romney on top with 50% (AP)

Republican presidential candidate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney greets supporters at his Nevada caucus night victory celebration in Las Vegas, Saturday, Feb. 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - Nevada Republicans have finally finished counting the votes in their Saturday presidential caucuses.




FACT CHECK: Obama, GOP spin recent energy stats (AP)
AP - You wouldn't know it from the Republicans, but these are boom times for American energy.

Air Force to cut 10,000 airmen, shift aircraft (AP)
AP - The Air Force on Friday detailed plans to cut the service by nearly 10,000 active, National Guard and Reserve airmen next year, as part of a broad move to downsize and shift capabilities around the country to be better prepared for wars of the future.

Conservatives take second powerful post in Finland (AP)

Sauli Niinisto smiles at the Helsinki Music Center after the second round of the Finnish Presidential elections on Sunday, Feb. 5, 2012. A conservative former finance minister was headed toward a clear victory in Finland's presidential election Sunday, according to partial results and a TV election forecast. A projection by national broadcaster YLE said Sauli Niinisto would win 63 percent of the votes, compared to 37 percent for his rival, Greens candidate Pekka Haavisto. (AP Photo/Lehtikuva/Martti Kainulainen) FINLAND OUT. NO SALES.AP - The victory for Finland's conservatives in the presidential runoff marks a political watershed in the Nordic country, restoring the National Coalition Party to the presidency after 30 years and giving it the nation's two top posts for the first time.




Obama tightens Iran sanctions over bank "deception" (Reuters)
Reuters - President Barack Obama signed an executive order imposing stricter sanctions on Iran and its central bank, saying new powers to freeze assets were needed because Iranian banks were concealing transactions, the White House said on Monday.

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