January 6, 2008

2 Days to the New Hampshire Primary

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Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani 20.4
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.4
Romney 13.4
Thompson 11.4
Paul 3.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.8
Edwards 14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +5.4%
IObama +2.2%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4, 2008 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

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Romney

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Huckabee

Iowa Postmortem

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New Hampshire Primaries

John Edwards


Yahoo! News: Politics News

2 Americans killed in drive-by shooting in Mexico (AP)

View of the US Consulate in Ciudad Juarez, Chihuahua State, Mexico on March 2. Suspected drug cartel AP - Three people with ties to the American consulate in a drug-plagued Mexican city were killed in a drive-by shooting, a U.S. official said Sunday.




AP Exclusive: Pentagon gun was from Tenn. police (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 6, 2007 file photo, Miami police chief John Timoney speaks during a news conference. Law enforcement officials say two guns used in high-profile attacks, one at the Pentagon, and another from the fatal January shooting of an officer at a Las Vegas courthouse, both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tennessee. (AP Photo/David Adame, File)AP - Two guns used in high-profile shootings this year at the Pentagon and a Las Vegas courthouse both came from the same unlikely place: the police and court system of Memphis, Tenn.




Social Security to start cashing Uncle Sam's IOUs (AP)

FILE - In this Feb. 23, 2005 file photo, Susan Chapman, director of the Division of Federal Investments, sorts through paper securities pulled from a safe at the Treasury Department's Bureau of Public Debt offices in Parkersburg, W.Va. The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration. It's time to start cashing them in. (AP Photo/Jeff Gentner, FILE)AP - The retirement nest egg of an entire generation is stashed away in this small town along the Ohio River: $2.5 trillion in IOUs from the federal government, payable to the Social Security Administration.




Moderates' demand for Obama wanes (Politico)
Politico - Some Democrats are unenthusiastic about riding the president's coattails this year.

W.H. plan to remake education law (Politico)
Politico - The plan undoes much of No Child Left Behind.

Dodd seeking middle ground on new financial rules (AP)

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn. gestures during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. Unable to muster bipartisan agreement on key banking provisions, Dodd said he will offer his own version of a sweeping overhaul of financial regulations without Republican support. (AP Photo/Harry Hamburg)AP - The senator trying to rewrite the nation's financial industry rules is dropping plans to create a stand-alone consumer financial protection agency and give a single regulator the power to oversee all banks, according to people familiar with the evolving proposal.




US cautious on removing nuclear arms from Europe (AP)

FILE - In this Nov. 15, 2009, file photo U.S. President Barack Obama speaks with his Russian counterpart Dmitry Medvedev on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Singapore. Obama said the U.S. and Russia would have a replacement treaty on reducing nuclear arms ready for approval by year's end. The Obama administration is taking a go-slow approach to one of the touchiest and least-discussed national security issues: whether to withdraw the last remaining Cold War-era U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe, administration officials say. (AP Photo/RIA-Novosti, Mikhail Klimentyev, Presidential Press Service, File)AP - The U.S. is taking a go-slow approach on one of the touchiest and least discussed national security issues: whether to remove the last remaining Cold War-era U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe.




House Democrat says still short on health votes (Reuters)

In this image released by NBC David Axelrod, President Barack Obama's top political adviser, is interviewed on NBC's Meet the Press in Washington Sunday, March 14, 2010. Axelrod said Sunday that lobbyists are gathering on Capitol Hill 'like locusts' to try to derail health care legislation, that passage will be a struggle, but that he's confident the overhaul will soon become law. (AP Photo/NBC, William B. Plowman) ** NO ARCHIVES. NO SALES **Reuters - White House officials on Sunday confidently predicted quick final passage of healthcare reform but a top Democratic vote-counter said the party still needs to line up more support in the House of Representatives.




AP Source: Colo. woman held in terror probe (AP)

Swedish cartoonist Lars Vilks walks in the streets of Stockholm. A second American Muslim woman has been arrested in Ireland on charges of conspiracy to kill the cartoonist who made fun of the Prophet Mohammed, The Wall Street Journal reported.(AFP/File/Francois Campredon)AP - A U.S. official says a Colorado woman has been detained in Ireland in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate a Swedish cartoonist whose sketch offended many Muslims.




White House stands ground on high court criticism (AP)
AP - The White House on Sunday defended President Barack Obama's scathing criticism of a Supreme Court decision that allows unions and corporations to funnel unlimited dollars to political campaigns.

For Obama, big agenda and small window for results (AP)

President Barack Obama speaks at the Export-Import Bank's Annual Conference in Washington, Thursday, March 11, 2010. Obama's intense juggling of domestic issues reflects all the realities he faces: a vast agenda, a smaller window for results this year and a need to keep promises to constituencies that will have a huge say in the fall congressional elections.(AP Photo/Charles Dharapak)AP - President Barack Obama's intense juggling of domestic issues reflects all the realities he faces at once: a vast agenda, a smaller window for results this year and a need to keep promises to constituencies that will have a huge say in the fall congressional elections.




Holocaust monument in Poland vandalized (AP)
AP - Vandals sprayed anti-Semitic graffiti on Holocaust memorials at a former Nazi concentration camp in Poland, desecration that authorities discovered Saturday and are investigating.

Swiss media: 60 people report abuses by priests (AP)
AP - Around 60 people have reported being victims of abuse by Catholic priests in Switzerland, a Swiss abbot said in an interview published by a newspaper Saturday.

Dem House vote-counter lacks health care votes now (AP)

A doctor administers a shot to a patient at a hospital ER unit. The fierce and fateful battle over health care reform forced President Barack Obama to delay his departure on a trip to Indonesia and Australia by three days, to March 21.(AFP/File/Martin Bureau)AP - The House's chief Democratic headcounter said Sunday he hadn't rounded up enough votes to pass President Barack Obama's health care overhaul heading into a make-or-break week, even as the White House's top political adviser said he was "absolutely confident" in its prospects.




Obama's health care legacy hangs on power of Clyburn's persuasion (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — The looming vote for final passage of the historic health-care bill is the stiffest challenge House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn has faced in his three-plus years as the lawmaker responsible for counting heads and ensuring passage of major legislation.

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