January 6, 2008

2 Days to the New Hampshire Primary

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Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani 20.4
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.4
Romney 13.4
Thompson 11.4
Paul 3.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.8
Edwards 14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +5.4%
IObama +2.2%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4, 2008 

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Yahoo! News: Politics News

Stimulus aside, Obama vows future budget restraint (AP)

President-elect Barack Obama speaks to reporters after a meeting with his top economic advisers at his transition office in Washington, Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)AP - To a public wary of government spending, President-elect Barack Obama is offering a salve with his massive economic stimulus package: the promise of long-term fiscal discipline.




Democratic opposition to seating Burris cracks (AP)

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid(R), House Speaker Nancy Pelosi(L) addressing reporters on Capitol Hill on January 5, 2009 in Washington, DC. The new US Congress was convening Tuesday at the dawn of an era of dominance for Barack Obama's Democrats in Washington with lawmakers consumed by the worst economic crisis in generations.(AFP/Getty Images/File/Mark Wilson)AP - Senate Democrats are looking for ways to defuse the standoff that has denied Roland Burris the vacated Senate seat of President-elect Barack Obama of Illinois, but maybe not much longer.




Detainees in Afghanistan seeking right for release (AP)
AP - Four men being held as terror suspects at a U.S. military base in Afghanistan are asking a federal judge for the right to sue for their release — a right already given to detainees at Guantanamo Bay.

CNN: Gupta approached about surgeon general post (AP)

In this Monday, Oct. 8, 2007 file photo, Dr. Sanjay Gupta attends a screening of the environmental documentary 'Planet in Peril,' in New York. President-elect Barack Obama has approached CNN's chief medical correspondent, Sanjay Gupta, to be the country's next surgeon general, the cable news network said Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2009. (AP Photo/Diane Bondareff)AP - President-elect Barack Obama's reported choice for surgeon general, CNN medical correspondent Sanjay Gupta, could bring a dose of star power to a job that hasn't had that much clout in decades.




It's the economic rollout, stupid (Politico)
Politico - Barack Obama’s elaborate rollout of his economic recovery plan could provide an impressive early victory for his incoming administration.

Ex-Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush won't run for Senate in 2010 (AP)

US President George W. Bush (L) looks on as his brother Florida Governor Jeb Bush speaks in 2006. Former president George H.W. Bush, father of the outgoing US commander-in-chief, on Sunday touted another son Jeb for a future presidential bid.(AFP/File/Jim Watson)AP - Former Gov. Jeb Bush announced Tuesday that he won't run for the U.S. Senate in 2010 to replace the retiring Mel Martinez, saying that it was not the right time to return to elected office.




A rare gathering: Bush, Obama and 3 ex-presidents (AP)
AP - An entire generation has gone by since the nation last saw this tableau of American history: every living U.S. president together at the White House.

End to Minn. Senate race pushed even further out (AP)

Republican Norm Coleman along with his wife Laurie and several supporters announces he is suing to challenge the results of the U.S. Senate recount during a press conference Tuesday Jan. 6, 2009 at the State Office Building in St. Paul, Minn. Coleman lost the recount to Democratic candidate Al Franken by 225 votes. (AP Photo/Dawn VIllella)AP - Minnesota's grueling U.S. Senate race, already dragging on two months past Election Day, has now moved even further from the voters — and into the hands of lawyers.




Experts: Crosswinds a factor in Denver air crash (AP)

Workers move the wreckage of Continental Airlines flight 1404 to a site outside a Continental hangar at Denver International Airport in Denver on Saturday, Jan. 3, 2009 from the ravine where it crash landed on Saturday, Dec. 20, 2008. Aviation safety experts said Tuesday, Jan. 6, strong crosswinds likely were a factor in an accident last month that sent a Continental Airlines jet into a bone-jarring veer off a Denver runway and across open, snowy fields before it came to a halt and caught fire. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)AP - It was very windy when a Continental Airlines jet was destroyed while trying to take off in Denver last month, leading aviation safety experts to cite crosswinds as a likely factor in the accident.




Obama names Harvard Law dean solicitor general (AP)
AP - President-elect Barack Obama on Monday chose the dean at his alma mater, Harvard Law School, to represent the United States before the Supreme Court.

Fears mount of Gaza conflict spill over in Europe (AP)

A Palestinian mourns the death of a relative outside the al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City. Israeli troops have tightened their military grip on the Gaza Strip with new air strikes and ground battles as Europe leads a diplomatic offensive to secure a ceasefire.(AFP/Mohammed Abed)AP - Government officials and Jewish leaders are concerned the conflict in Gaza may spill over into violence in Europe, with attacks reported against Jews and synagogues in France, Sweden and Britain.




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