January 7, 2008

1 Day to the New Hampshire Primary

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Giuliani Leads by 2.4%
Giuliani 20.4
Huckabee
 18.0
McCain 17.4
Romney 13.4
Thompson 11.4
Paul 3.8
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 20.2%
Clinton 45.0
Obama 24.8
Edwards 14.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +5.4%
Obama +4.8%
South Carolina
Huckabee +7.3%
Clinton +1.5%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4, 2008 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

HILLARY ON THE ATTACK - ROMNEY UNDER SIEGE

Republican New Hampshire Debates

Democratic Debate

Hillary

Obama

McCain

Romney

Giuliani

Huckabee

Iowa Postmortem

International

Turnout

New Hampshire Primaries

John Edwards


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Author assumes guise of 10-year-old to punk famous (AP)
AP - Over the years, "Little Billy" learned much from the country's top minds.

Highway deaths drop to lowest levels since 1950s (AP)
AP - U.S. highway deaths have fallen to their lowest levels since the 1950s, as more motorists bought into buckling up and embraced safety innovations. A sour economy that dampened traveling instincts also was a contributor.

Success of lone gunmen may shift al-Qaida strategy (AP)

FILE - This December 2009 file photo released by the U.S. Marshal's Service shows Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab in Milan, Mich. On Christmas Day, a passenger on a Northwest Airlines flight bound for Detroit tried to blow up the plane with plastic explosives in his underwear. He failed, yet the very attempt shook the U.S. government, set federal agencies against each other and triggered months of political second-guessing. (AP Photo/U.S. Marshal's Service)AP - On Christmas Day, a passenger on a Northwest Airlines flight bound for Detroit tried to blow up the plane with plastic explosives in his underwear. He failed, yet the very attempt shook the U.S. government, set federal agencies against each other and triggered months of political second-guessing.




CBC: Obama not listening (Politico)
Politico - Tensions are rising as the caucus tries to stem the high unemployment rate among African-Americans.

POLITICO Interview: Karl Rove (Politico)
Politico - Mike Allen speaks with Karl Rove about his new book "Courage and Consequence."

Toyota troubles put spotlight on US safety agency (AP)

Toyota Prius vehicles are seen for sale Wednesday, March 10, 2010, in Hayward, Calif. The government sent investigators Tuesday to examine a Prius that sped out of control on a California freeway, and Toyota said it wanted to interview the driver as the besieged automaker dealt with a high-profile new headache that raised questions about the safety of its beloved hybrid. A day after state troopers helped the car slow to a stop and its driver to emerge unharmed, Toyota could shed no new light on what might have gone wrong. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)AP - Toyota's massive recalls are prompting Congress to reconsider whether the nation's auto safety agency has lived up to its mission of protecting motorists.




Democrats, White House close in on health bill (AP)

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) speaks about healthcare reform at her weekly news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, March 4, 2010. REUTERS/Jose Luis MaganaAP - A final agreement nearly in hand, President Barack Obama and Democratic leaders are about to embark on one last sales job that will determine the outcome of the president's signature health care overhaul.




Ex-freshman, veteran kingpin equal Democratic woes (AP)

FILE - This Tuesday Oct. 14, 2008 file photo shows Eric Massa, Democratic candidate for New York's 29th Congressional District in Rochester, N.Y. One is a former Democratic freshman who was little known outside his Corning-Olean-Pittsford, N.Y. district. The other, a 20-term Democratic kingpin from Harlem, known to New Yorkers and anyone following tax bills. But now, Republicans — looking for any opening to regain control of the House — are portraying newly resigned first-termer Eric Massa and veteran Charles Rangel as dual symbols of Democratic ethical misconduct. (AP Photo/David Duprey, File)AP - One is a former Democratic freshman little known outside his Corning-Olean-Pittsford, N.Y., district. The other, a 20-term Democratic kingpin from Harlem, is widely known to New Yorkers and anyone following tax legislation.




'Little Billy's Letters' at a glance (AP)
AP - Excerpts from the responses by prominent figures to letters from "Little Billy," the grade-schooler alter ego of prankster Bill Geerhart, appearing in the book "Little Billy's Letters":

Chief Justice John Roberts and Obama White House: a tit for tat (The Christian Science Monitor)

FILE - In this Sept. 29, 2009, file photo, Chief Justice John Roberts sits for a new group photograph with other Supreme Court judges at the Supreme Court in Washington. For a short time Thursday, March 4, 2010, Washington buzzed over a rumor reported exclusively by an online gossip Web site with no particular Supreme Court expertise that Chief Justice John Roberts was considering stepping down. He is not resigning, as even the Radar Online site quickly concluded in backing away from its own story. (AP Photo/Charles Dharapak, File)The Christian Science Monitor - It’s starting to look like the Hatfields versus the McCoys. Except, in this instance, it’s two branches of government duking it out: the judicial branch (Chief Justice John Roberts) versus the executive (President Obama).




How the AP-GfK poll on Obama was conducted (AP)
AP - The Associated Press-GfK Poll on President Obama, the direction of the country and health care was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media from March 3-8. It is based on landline and cell phone telephone interviews with a nationally representative random sample of 1,002 adults. Interviews were conducted with 702 respondents on landline telephones and 300 on cellular phones.

43 Somalis die in capital after 2 days of warfare (AP)

Somali government soldiers cross a street during heavy fighting with Islamist insurgents in northern Mogadishu, Somalia, Thursday, March 11, 2010. Islamist insurgents and government forces battled for a second day in the Somali capital. (AP Photo/Farah Abdi Warsameh)AP - Heavy fighting between Somali insurgents and pro-government troops has killed at least 43 people over two days, as African Union peacekeepers used tanks to help the beleaguered government beat back an insurgent attack, officials said Thursday.




UK court grants bail to ex-Bosnian vice president (AP)

FILE - Then senior Bosnian politician Ejup Ganic attends a news conference in Tuzla, Bosnia, in this May 5, 2007 file photo. A British court granted bail to the former Bosnian President Ejup Ganic Thursday March 11, 2010. The 64-year-old was arrested March 1 at London's Heathrow airport on a Serbian warrant in connection with the 1992 death of Yugoslav army troops in Bosnia. (AP Photo/Amel Emric, File)AP - Britain's High Court on Thursday granted bail to former Bosnian Vice President Ejup Ganic, who was arrested at London's Heathrow Airport on a Serbian war crimes warrant earlier this month.




Obama to sign order to execute export-doubling strategy (AFP)

Job seekers and employers come together at the Inland Empire Career Fair in California in February 2010. US President Barack Obama will sign an executive order Thursday to put into action his ambitious strategy to double American exports to ease an unemployment crisis at home, officials said.(AFP/Getty Images/File/David Mcnew)AFP - US President Barack Obama will sign an executive order Thursday to put into action his ambitious strategy to double American exports to ease an unemployment crisis at home, officials said.




House rejects bid to pull troops from Afghanistan (McClatchy Newspapers)
McClatchy Newspapers - WASHINGTON — The House of Representatives rejected a resolution Wednesday that called on President Barack Obama to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by year's end.

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