January 8, 2008

New Hampshire Primary Today

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Huckabee Leads by 0.7%
Huckabee 20.7
McCain
 20.0
Giuliani 19.0
Romney 12.0
Thompson 10.7
Paul 3.7
See All Polls
Clinton Leads by 8.0%
Clinton 37.3
Obama 29.3
Edwards 18.0
See All Polls
STATE PRIMARY LEADERS
(EARLY STATES)
New Hampshire
McCain +4.9%
Obama +7.1%
South Carolina
Huckabee +13.0%
Obama +16.0%
Michigan
Romney +0.5%
Clinton +31.0% No Delegates
Florida
Giuliani +2.0%
Clinton +23.7%
Nevada
Romney +3.5%
Clinton +17.5%
Clinton 48.5
Giuliani 45.5
Clinton 47.0
Thompson 42.0
Clinton 45.0
McCain 48.5
Clinton 49.8
Romney 44.3
Clinton 51.3
Huckabee 42.0
See All Head-to-Head Polls

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Are Superior

The Ref's Calls

Pro Hillary Pundits May

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding

Pundits Show Remarkable Shortsightedness

One cannot tune into a news channel or read a newspaper without finding predictions of Hillary's complete demise if she loses New Hampshire.  Unfortunately for Hillary haters, the conventional rules for the early primaries do not apply.

Pundits may very well be more concerned with ratings and circulation than reality, but their conclusion that Obama can finish Hillary off by winning the first three states ignores reality.  Here is reality.

The Clinton machine is massive and powerful.  In 1992 Bill Clinton did not win until Georgia and they have that built in narrative to fall back on.  Clinton leads in every state but the first three by sizable margins.  Finally, the first three primaries will have much less impact on the rest of the nation because they take place over a much shorter period of time than ever before.

While pundits rush to declare Obama the victor, Clinton waits for the day when they declare her back from the dead.  What better way to redefine yourself than by coming back from the dead?  Make no mistake about it, Hillary Clinton, even if she loses New Hampshire and South Carolina, will be very much alive.  If you doubt that simply refer to the Ref's National Poll Averages.     

Do not misread me.  I have no desire for Hillary or any other candidate to win.  But to declare her dead after three primaries simply ignores reality, this year at least.  The Ref - Jan. 6, 2008

McCain Not Helped by Obama's Victory

McCain will suffer from Obama's big Iowa victory. If Hillary had won McCain would have less competition for the Independent vote from Obama in New Hampshire. Obama, in that case, would have been counted out for the most part. 

Now that Obama is the big story coming out of Iowa, McCain can expect to lose a substantial portion of his vote to Obama. Obama bought himself about one-third of the political headlines over the next four days, many of which might have gone to McCain.

If Romney can capture the majority of the conservative vote, McCain may not have enough Independents to fend him off. Thompson's numbers in New Hampshire are paltry so Romney will probably carry the conservative standard there.

Obama's victory forces McCain to get in and fight hard for some of the conservatives Romney will rely on. Certainly New Hampshire is a heavily Independent state, but there are only so many Independents to go around. Obama won a huge chunk of those Independents tonight. McCain will have to fight hard to win some of them back. The Ref - Jan. 4, 2008 

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The Ref's Daily Political Brief

Recent Headlines

CARVILLE TO THE RESCUE?

CLINTON CRIES

Barack Obama - Electable Because He's Black?

Hillary Clinton - Will Fight, Fight, Fight!  But Cry a Little Too

John McCain - 10,000 Year Presence in Iraq OK

New Hampshire Primaries in General

Mike Huckabee Wants to Amend Constitution

Giuliani Still Back There, Hoping, but Blundering

 


Yahoo! News: Politics News

Dems are postponing crucial vote on auto bailout (AP)

The General Motors headquarters is seen on November 18, 2008 in Detroit, Michigan. Democrats in Congress Thursday put off a vote on a bailout for crisis-hit AP - Democratic leaders in Congress sidetracked legislation to bail out the auto industry Thursday and demanded the Big Three develop a plan assuring the money would make them economically viable.




Stevens leaves to a standing ovation (Politico)

This video image provided by the Senate shows Sen. Ted Stevens. R-Alaska speaking of the floor of the Senate in Washington, Thursday,Nov. 20, 2008. (AP Photo/Senate)Politico - Ted Stevens — the longest-serving Republican senator in history — bid farewell to the Senate on Thursday. Although he leaves under criminal conviction, the 85-year-old Alaskan said the future is still bright.




Napolitano is no stranger to Washington scandals (AP)

In this Nov. 13, 2008 file photo, Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington. Napolitano is President-elect Barack Obama's primary choice to be secretary of the Homeland Security Department, several news organizations reported Thursday Nov. 20, 2008. (AP Photo/Lauren Victoria Burke)AP - President-elect Barack Obama's likely pick for Homeland Security secretary, Janet Napolitano, is no stranger to headline-making Washington scandals and controversies.




Obama likely to make bad nomination or two, history shows (AP)

President-elect Barack Obama smiles during his meeting with Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., not shown, Monday, Nov. 17, 2008, at Obama's transition office in downtown Chicago. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais)AP - No matter how careful he is, sooner or later President-elect Barack Obama is likely to make a bum nomination or two.




Hyatt heiress Pritzker out of running for Commerce Secretary (Politico)

Economic advisor Penny Pritzker, CEO of Classic Residence by Hyatt, attends a news conference by President-elect Barack Obama in Chicago, November 7, 2008. (Carlos Barria/Reuters)Politico - Chicago businesswoman Penny Pritzker, national campaign finance chairwoman for the Obama campaign, has taken herself out of the running to be secretary of Commerce, a Democratic official said.




Ted Stevens' fall points to political shift (AP)

Democrat Mark Begich talks about winning the U.S. Senate seat for Alaska against Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, during a news conference in Anchorage, Alaska Wednesday Nov. 19, 2008. (AP Photo/Al Grillo)AP - Alaska's incoming senator is bullish on gun rights, wants to open the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and gas drilling and believes less government is better. And he's a Democrat.




Dems: Napolitano emerges for Homeland Security job (AP)

US President-elect Barack Obama speaks to the press on November 07, 2008 in Chicago. Barack Obama's incoming chief of staff, divisive Democrat Rahm Emanuel, reached out to Republicans Thursday with an appeal for cross-party solutions to pressing challenges.(AFP/File/Stan Honda)AP - President-elect Barack Obama is likely to choose Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano to be secretary of homeland security, top Obama advisers and several Democrats said Thursday as the shape of Obama's Cabinet begins to emerge.




Congress rushing to extend jobless benefits (AP)

Graphic shows change in weekly jobless claims;AP - Jarred by new jobless alarms, Congress rushed Thursday toward keeping unemployment checks flowing through the December holidays and into the new year for Americans whose benefits are running out.




The year 2025: Oil, dollar out; Russia, Islam in (AP)
AP - Global warming could help Russia's economy, an Eastern or Central European country could be overrun by organized crime and the U.S. dollar could further decline in importance during the next two decades, says a new report from U.S. intelligence analysts with predictions for the world in 2025.

Calif. court to hear challenge to gay marriage ban (Reuters)

Supporters hold signs during a 'No on Prop 8' rally in West Hollywood, November 5, 2008. (Mario Anzuoni/Reuters)Reuters - California's Supreme Court on Wednesday agreed to hear a legal challenge against the state's voter-approved ban on gay marriage and let the ban stand in the meantime.




EU welcomes Welsh as a minority languages (AP)
AP - The Welsh language, which dates back to the 6th century, got a major boost Thursday when the European Union formally recognized it as a minority tongue.

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