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Political Ref - Fight Media Bias - Poll Averages - Election Polls - Presidential Polls - Election 2008 Polls

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DELEGATE COUNT

Poll Averages Last Updated 5/3/08
 Obama +2.0%
 Obama 45.7
 Clinton 43.7
 Upcoming States (Dems)
West Virginia (5/13): Clinton 55.0, Obama 27.0 Clinton +28.0
Kentucky (5/20): Clinton 63.0, Obama 27.0      Clinton +36.0
Obama vs. McCain -  Obama +0.5%
 Obama 45.7
 McCain 45.2
Clinton vs. McCain - Clinton +3.1%
 Clinton 47.1
 McCain 44.0
Top 5 Battleground States
Nat'l  
Ref's Avg. of Battle- grounds
McCain +1.9
 
Clinton +0.2
PA  
FL  
OH  
MO  
IA  
       

Ref's Poll Notes

The nine-point lead Hillary has over McCain in the AP-Ipsos poll is out of sync with the other polls.  We have to wait and see if other polls find her lead increasing to determine if this is an anomaly.  There does, however, seem to be definite movement in North Carolina with Obama's lead shrinking.  Three polls all put his lead at around ten points.

You might have noticed that Obama's lead over Clinton in the Democratic nomination dropped from 10.0 points to 5.2 points overnight.  This occurred because the Newsweek poll showing a 19-point lead was replaced with the new Newsweek numbers showing a 7-point lead.  The 19-point lead was an anomaly.  No other poll showed a lead nearly that large for Obama. 

Now that Pennsylvania has concluded, Indiana and North Carolina represent the most important states in this Democratic primary. Watch to see if Hillary can cut into Obama's large North Carolina lead or build up a lead in Indiana. If the numbers remain as they are now, that's bad news for Hillary. Her Indiana lead is small and tenuous and she trails badly in North Carolina.  The best she can probably hope for is a wash in terms of popular vote between these two states.  If she does that she's succeeded.  It doesn't look like she will do that at this point.

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Offer More

Photo Attributions

 

 

 

 

58% Say Obama Denounced Wright for Political Convenience, not Outrage - Also, 56% say he's somewhat likely to share the same controversial views.  Bad news for Obama.  Read the Rasmussen Reports poll.

McCain Clarifies Comments Suggesting Iraq War Was Fought Over Foreign Oil - You will hear this more than the taken out of context '100 years' comment.  I think the Democrats and liberal media are wasting all their time and money on these attacks. I think attacks relating in any way to national security just give McCain more reasons to offer, and the media a greater obligation to cover, his heroic history.  One should never fight on his or her opponent's territory. Subject selection is everything in politics.  The contrast between Obama and McCain when discussing the issue of war will not help Obama.  He has no experience whatsoever on such matters. 

Suddenly, N. Carolina Is Facing Tighter Race

Denomination Wrestles With Pastor’s Statements - This is a liberal denomination although some UCCs are somewhat independent. It will be interesting to see how they deal with Wright.  

Republicans Crossing Over to Vote in Democratic Contests - The liberal sectors of the media continue to write this story, suggesting that Obama in particular is irresistible to Republicans.  The problem with this storyline is that more Democrats say they are willing to vote for McCain than Republicans who say they will vote for the Democrat.  The polls are clear on this. 

Clinton Tries Party's Patience, As Race Reaches Crossroads - If ever you've wondered why conservatives call the Democratic Party the "Democrat" Party, you might look at this substantially non-democratic primary process where caucuses matter as much as democratic primaries and super delegates can do as they wish. Conservatives who say "Democrat" for Democratic do so to imply a pervasive elitism within the Party.  I think they have a point.

GOP uses Obama to boost Republican candidates

Evangelicals say faith is now too political

A Blacklash?

Voter Fraud Watch: Could ACORN Scandal in Washington Have Been Avoided With Photo ID?

Fed likely to prefer lending over interest-rate cuts

Expert sees peanut allergy solution within 5 years

Computer keyboards can be dirtier than a toilet: study

Civil War cannonball kills Virginia relic collector

Chris Matthews blows a gasket over McCain's "oil in the Middle East" comment

 

Hillary has testicular fortitude?

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