Political Ref - Fight Media Bias - Poll Averages - Election Polls - Presidential Polls

Top 5 Battleground States
Nat'l	Obama vs. McCain	Clinton vs. McCain
Ref's Avg. of Battle- grounds	McCain +1.9	Clinton +0.2
PA	TIED	Clinton +5.0
FL	McCain +3.5	TIED
OH	McCain +3.4	Clinton +5.4
MO	McCain +8.0	Clinton +1.0
IA	Obama +5.5	McCain +10.5

Ref's Poll Notes

The nine-point lead Hillary has over McCain in the AP-Ipsos poll is out of sync with the other polls. We have to wait and see if other polls find her lead increasing to determine if this is an anomaly. There does, however, seem to be definite movement in North Carolina with Obama's lead shrinking. Three polls all put his lead at around ten points.

You might have noticed that Obama's lead over Clinton in the Democratic nomination dropped from 10.0 points to 5.2 points overnight. This occurred because the Newsweek poll showing a 19-point lead was replaced with the new Newsweek numbers showing a 7-point lead. The 19-point lead was an anomaly. No other poll showed a lead nearly that large for Obama.

Now that Pennsylvania has concluded, Indiana and North Carolina represent the most important states in this Democratic primary. Watch to see if Hillary can cut into Obama's large North Carolina lead or build up a lead in Indiana. If the numbers remain as they are now, that's bad news for Hillary. Her Indiana lead is small and tenuous and she trails badly in North Carolina. The best she can probably hope for is a wash in terms of popular vote between these two states. If she does that she's succeeded. It doesn't look like she will do that at this point.

Why the Ref's Poll Averages Offer More

Photo Attributions

OBAMA DANGER ZONE: Clinton's Lead in Indiana Virtually Identical to Obama's North Carolina Lead - If Obama does not add some more to his popular vote lead on Tuesday, he will likely fall behind when counting Florida (not Michigan) votes after the Kentucky and West Virginia primaries, at least temporarily.

On Sunday TV, One Hot Race Fuels Another

McCain’s Pastors: Same Questions, Different Answers - This is a non-story. Where's the story here? By this standard Obama can be blamed for the controversial views of everyone who has endorsed him. Rev. Wright served a critical role in Obama's life. Obama used the title of a sermon to name his book. This is such a non-story that I wonder if the story is being written just to keep the Rev. Wright story going.

Obama Faces Test in Asserting His Own Brand of Patriotism

North Carolina voters appear -- in droves - This race really could go either way, although Obama holds an advantage.

Alaska governor balances newborn's needs, official duties - Governor Palin of Alaska is a VP pick favorite for many Republicans.

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