CNN's pollster makes excuses for final numbers, does not release internals
The Final CNN/Opinion Research Poll
This poll finds that Obama will win nationally by seven points, 53 to 46. Unfortunately for CNN, however, their pollster makes excuses for his findings. He writes, "Keep in mind that this is not a prediction of the final outcome . . . That's not an easy task with two full days of campaigning to go in a country in which roughly one in ten voters tend to make up their minds in the last few days." If the pollster has little confidence in his poll, then so do we.
Second, the pollster or CNN decided that the internals should not be published. One would assume that if they had a realistic turnout model, they would have happily published it. Because they did not one can fairly assume that Democrats were oversampled.
Third, the CNN electoral projection, showing Obama with 291 electoral votes, also does not square with a seven-point national lead. If Obama wins by seven points nationally, he will win well over three hundred electoral votes. For the above reasons, the final CNN poll is not included in the national poll averages.
The Ref | 11/2/08 | Permalink