LOL! NYT Poll Assumes 12% Democratic Voter Turnout Advantage
This poll assumes that the electorate will be composed of 28.4% Republicans, 30.9% Independents, and a whopping 40.7% Democrats. That amounts to a 12.3% advantage for Democrats. Translating that advantage to population, the NYT is assuming that anywhere from twelve to seventeen million more Democratic voters than Republicans will vote. This is so far out of the realm of possibility, one is shocked to see even the New York Times publish this poll.
What is surprising is that Obama only has a thirteen point lead when assuming such a lopsided turnout. The poll shows only a slight advantage for Obama among Independents. For savvy observers, this polls does not show a likely Obama landslide, but a close race that depends entirely on turnout.
If the NYT used a reasonable voter turnout model, it would show about a five or six percent lead for Obama.
The Ref | 10/24/08 | Permalink