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Ref's Final Projection - Obama +6.6 (51.3-44.7)

Actual Results - Obama +6.5 (52.6-46.1)

  • LIKELY VOTERS
  • ALL VOTERS
  • INCLUDING ALL POLLS
Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 6.6%
This average excludes polls of registered voters and those with unreliable voter samples.
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain-Palin
Obama-Biden
The Ref's Averages
 10/29-11/3 1406LV 2.9 44.7 51.3
11/1-11/3 3000LV 2.0 46 52
11/1-11/3 1201LV 2.9 43 54
11/1-11/3 981LV 3.4 42.4 47.5
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 48 50
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 47 52
10/31-11/2 2472LV 2.0 42 53
10/31-11/2 887LV 3.3 45 50
11/1-11/2 1011LV 3.1 43 51
11/1-11/2 971LV 3.0 43 50
10/30-11/2 760LV 3.6 46 53
10/29-11/1 2587LV 2.0 46 52
*CBS News
 10/31-11/2 714LV - 42 51
The CBS poll has consistently oversampled Democrats.
10/30-11/1 714LV 3.5 46 53
10/30-11/2 2470LV 2.5 44 53
*The Ref's Averages do not include polls that have been demonstrated to be extreme outliers.

Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 6.6%
This averaage includes registered voter polls that tend to favor Democrats.
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain-Palin
Obama-Biden
The Ref's Averages
 10/29-11/3 1406LV 2.9 44.7 51.3
11/1-11/3 3000LV 2.0 46 52
11/1-11/3 1201LV 2.9 43 54
11/1-11/3 981LV 3.4 42.4 47.5
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 48 50
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 47 52
10/31-11/2 2472LV 2.0 42 53
10/31-11/2 887LV 3.3 45 50
11/1-11/2 1011LV 3.1 43 51
11/1-11/2 971LV 3.0 43 50
10/30-11/2 760LV 3.6 46 53
10/29-11/1 2587LV 2.0 46 52
*CBS News
 10/31-11/2 714LV - 42 51
The CBS poll has consistently oversampled Democrats.
10/30-11/1 714LV 3.5 46 53
10/30-11/2 2470LV 2.5 44 53

Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 7.0%
This average includes all polls regardless of the validity of their samples.
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain-Palin
Obama-Biden
The Ref's Averages
 10/29-11/3 1383LV 3.0 44.5 51.5
11/1-11/3 3000LV 2.0 46 52
11/1-11/3 1201LV 2.9 43 54
11/1-11/3 981LV 3.4 42.4 47.5
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 48 50
11/2-11/3 800LV 3.5 47 52
10/31-11/2 2472LV 2.0 42 53
10/31-11/2 887LV 3.3 45 50
11/1-11/2 1011LV 3.1 43 51
11/1-11/2 971LV 3.0 43 50
10/30-11/2 760LV 3.6 46 53
10/29-11/1 2587LV 2.0 46 52
*CBS News
 10/31-11/2 714LV - 42 51
The CBS poll has consistently oversampled Democrats.
10/30-11/1 714LV 3.5 46 53
10/30-11/2 2470LV 2.5 44 53


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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