Google

 

 

DELEGATE COUNT

SUBSRIBE TO THE REF'S RSS FEED

WHY THE REF'S AVERAGES ARE SUPERIOR TO OTHER AVERAGES

NATIONAL

STATES

 

 

McCain vs. Obama

  • ALL VOTERS
  • LIKELY VOTERS ONLY
  • INCLUDING ALL POLLS
Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 2.0%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain
Obama
The Ref's Averages
 8/14-8/27 1274V 3.1 43.5 45.5
8/24-8/27 1700LV 4.0 47 47
8/25-8/27 2723RV 2.0 42 48
8/18-8/24 1022RV 3.0 40 44
8/23-8/24 2248LV 2.1 44 46
8/23-8/24 909RV 3.5 47 47
8/21-8/23 LV 4.0 45 48
8/19-8/22 LV 3.0 45 49
8/19-8/20 900RV 3.0 39 42
8/18-8/20 1000Adults 4.0 38 39
8/15-8/19 869RV 3.0 42 45
8/15-8/18 1005RV 3.1 42 45
8/15-8/18 1248RV 3.0 43 45
8/14-8/16 1089LV 3.0 46 41
*The Ref's Averages do not include polls of adults as opposed to registered or likely voters.
*The Ref's Averages do not include Internet polls.

Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 0.5%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain
Obama
The Ref's Averages
 8/14-8/27 1395V 3.5 45.8 46.3
8/24-8/27 1700LV 4.0 47 47
8/21-8/23 LV 4.0 45 48
8/19-8/22 LV 3.0 45 49
8/14-8/16 1089LV 3.0 46 41

Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 2.0%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain
Obama
The Ref's Averages
 8/14-8/27 1338 3.1 43.1 45.1
8/24-8/27 1700LV 4.0 47 47
8/25-8/27 2723RV 2.0 42 48
8/18-8/24 1022RV 3.0 40 44
8/23-8/24 2248LV 2.1 44 46
8/23-8/24 909RV 3.5 47 47
8/21-8/23 LV 4.0 45 48
8/19-8/22 LV 3.0 45 49
8/19-8/20 900RV 3.0 39 42
8/18-8/20 1000Adults 4.0 38 39
8/15-8/19 869RV 3.0 42 45
8/15-8/18 1005RV 3.1 42 45
8/15-8/18 1248RV 3.0 43 45
8/14-8/16 1089LV 3.0 46 41


 

Ref's Electoral Vote Projection

Obama - 207     McCain - 176     Toss Up/Lean - 155

 

Including Leaners

Obama - 255      McCain - 226   Toss Up - 57

CLICK ON A STATE TO SEE THE LATEST POLL NUMBERS

California - 55 EV - Obama Colorado - 9 EV Florida - 27 EV Georgia - 15 EV Iowa - 7 EV Maryland - 10 EV Michigan - 17 EV Missouri - 11 EV New Hampshire - 4 EV New Jersey - 15 EV Nevada - 5 EV North Carolina - 15 EV Ohio - 20 EV Pennsylvania - 21 EV South Carolina - 8 EV Texas - 34 EV Virginia - 13 EV Wisconsin - 10 EV Arizona - 10 EV New York - 31 EV Alabama - 9 EV Connecticut - 7 EV Delaware - 3 EV Illinois - 21 EV Massachusetts - 12 EV Minnesota - 10 EV Oklahoma - 7 EV Tennessee - 11 EV Utah - 5 EV Rhode Island - 4 EV Vermont - 3 EV Indiana - 11 EV Kentucky - 8 EV West Virginia - 5 EV Washington - 11 EV Oregon - 7 EV Idaho - 4 EV Montana - 3 EV North Dakota - 3 EV South Dakota - 3 EV Wyoming - 3 EV Nebraska - 5 EV Kansas - 6 EV New Mexico - 5 EV Arkansas - 6 EV Louisiana - 9 EV Mississippi - 6 EV Maine - 4 EV

Alaska Hawaii Hawaii Alaska - 3 EV Hawaii - 4 EV           

STATE
ELECTORAL VOTES
McCAIN
OBAMA
LEADER
2004
Alabama
9
+16.5
-
McCain
Bush +26
Alaska
3
+6.0
-
McCain
Bush +25
Arizona
10
+12.0
-
McCain
Bush +11
Arkansas
6
+13.0
-
McCain
Bush +9.76
California
55
-
+13.0
Obama
Kerry +9.95
Colorado
9
-
+1.2
Toss Up
Bush +4.67
Connecticut
7
-
+15.0
Obama
Kerry +10
Delaware
3
-
+9.0
Obama
Kerry +7.60
Dist. of Columbia
3
-
No Data
Obama
Kerry +81
Florida
27
+3.4
-
Lean McCain
Bush +5.01
Georgia
15
+9.0
-
McCain
Bush +17
Hawaii
4
-
+30.0
Obama
Kerry +8.75
Idaho
4
+13.0
-
McCain
Bush +39.0
Illinois
21
-
+15.0
Obama
Kerry +11.0
Indiana
11
+6.0
-
McCain
Bush +21.0
Iowa
7
-
+6.0
Obama
Bush +0.67
Kansas
6
+17.0
-
McCain
Bush +25.0
Kentucky
8
+14.0
-
McCain
Bush +20.0
Louisiana
9
+18.3
-
McCain
Bush +15.0
Maine
4
-
+14.0
Obama
Kerry +8.99
Maryland
10
-
+13.0
Obama
Kerry +13.0
Massachusetts
12
-
+12.5
Obama
Kerry +25.0
Michigan
17
-
+4.0
Lean Obama
Kerry +3.42
Mississippi
6
+13.0
-
McCain
Bush +20.0
Missouri
11
+8.0
-
McCain
Bush +7.20
Minnesota
10
-
+4.5
Lean Obama
Kerry +3.48
Montana
3
Tied
Tied
Toss Up
Bush
5
+19.0
-
McCain
Bush
Nevada
5
+3.0
-
Lean McCain
Bush +2.59
New Hampshire
4
-
+1.0
Toss Up
Kerry +1.37
New Jersey
15
-
+10.7
Obama
Kerry +6.68
New Mexico
5
Tied
Tied
Toss Up
Bush +0.79
New York
31
-
+16.0
Obama
Kerry +19.0
North Carolina
15
+4.2
-
Lean McCain
Bush +12.0
North Dakota
3
Tied
Tied
Toss Up
Bush +27
Ohio
20
+1.2
-
Toss Up
Bush +2.11
Oklahoma
7
+23.0
-
McCain
Bush +32.0
Oregon
7
-
+6.5
Obama
Kerry +4.16
Pennsylvania
21
-
+5.0
Lean Obama
Kerry +2.5
Rhode Island
4
-
+12.5
Obama
Kerry +21.0
South Carolina
8
+7.5
-
McCain
Bush +17.0
South Dakota
3
+4.0
-
Lean McCain
Bush +21.0
Tennessee
11
+20.0
-
McCain
Bush +14.0
Texas
34
+10.0
-
McCain
Bush +23.0
Utah
5
+39.0
-
McCain
Bush +46.0
Vermont
3
-
+34.0
Obama
Kerry +20.0
Virginia
13
Tied
Tied
Toss Up
Bush +8.20
Washington
11
-
+10.5
Obama
Kerry +7.18
West Virginia
5
+8.0
-
McCain
Bush +13.0
Wisconsin
10
-
+6.0
Obama
Kerry +0.38
Wyoming
3
+37.0
-
McCain
Bush +40.0
           

Alaska