POLLS OF INTEREST
Poll: Half of U.S. says press pro-Obama - Politico, Rasmussen Reports - 7/21/08
Poll Finds Obama Candidacy Isn’t Closing Divide on Race - NYT, 7/15/08
July Leader Lost in 6 of Last 9 Competitive U.S. Elections -Gallup, 7/7/08
Religious Intensity Predicts Support for McCain - Gallup, 7/8/08
Republicans, Democrats Differ on Creationism - Gallup, 6/20/08
Most Americans Believe in Higher Power, Poll Finds - Washington Post. 6/23/08
Pew survey finds believers flexible - Pew Research Center. 6/23/08
3 in 10 Americans Admit to Race Bias - Washington Post. 6/22/08
Confidence in Congress: Lowest Ever for Any U.S. Institution - Gallup. 6/21/008
Poll: most Britons doubt cause of climate change - Guardian. 6/21/08
A Poll Finds Californians Still Oppose Gay Marriage - New York Times. See more here. 5/23/08
58% Say Obama Denounced Wright for Political Convenience, not Outrage - Also, 56% say he's somewhat likely to share the same controversial views. Bad news for Obama. See more here. 5/2/08
Poll: More Democrats think Clinton can beat McCain than think Obama can
This represents a major shift in voter perception. If it holds up then it is safe to conclude that Jeremiah Wright has substanitally affected this race. Even if Obama wins the nomination, he would take it as a candidate backed up by less Democratic confidence than he otherwise would have had. This is relevant to how the media covers him, fundraising and his own confidence, all important political variables. See the Fox News poll here. 4/30/08
Large percentage of Pennsylvania Democratic voters would vote McCain if their candidate loses
"In this latest survey of 2,103 likely Democratic primary voters by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University, 26 percent of Clinton supporters would switch to Arizona Sen. John McCain, the Republican, in November if Obama were the Democratic nominee. Nineteen percent of Obama backers would switch to McCain if Clinton were the Democratic nominee." Read the Quinnipiac University poll here.
Big trouble on the horizon for Obama if Hillary drops out?
If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain - Gallup, 3/26/08
Democrats split on who should drop out
22% of Democrats Want Clinton to Drop Out; 22% Say Obama Should Withdraw - Rasmussen, 3/26/08
8% of journalists describe themselves as "conservative" or "very conservative" while 32% assess themselves as "liberal" or "very liberal"
53% described themselves as moderate and 8% refused to answer. I am guessing that around half of that combined remaining 61% probably fall on the liberal side, a few on the conservative side and the rest are actually moderate. The media is overwhelmingly liberal and this survey supports that to some extent. When journalists are given the option of "moderate," it's surprising that 80 to 90 percent did not label themselves as moderate. Many journalists like to indulge in the fiction that they can successfully suppress their political biases. The Pew Research Center should have offered "lean left" and "lean right" instead of moderate. Even with the flawed survey question, however, a third of the media admitted to being liberal. I'm guessing that number is closer to 55 to 60%. See the survey here. You will find this particular survey question on page 19 of 26. 3/18/08
Democrats want Florida and Michigan to count, but disagree on the solution
A poll finds that Democrats are evenly split among the options to make Florida and Michigan count. Read the Gallup poll here. 3/11/08
McCain Trusted more than Clinton on National Security, Clinton has Edge on Economy
These findings are not a surprise. It is, however, somewhat interesting that McCain is trusted more on national security at the same time that other polls find that Americans do not have a favorable opinion of the Iraq war. See the poll here. 3/10/08
New York Times Decision to Publish McCain Story Viewed Negatively
57% of Americans believe the decision to publish the McCain story was wrong. 33% of Americans believed it was right while 10% had no opinion. See the Pew Research Center poll here.
What About Iowa's Impact on the Rest of the Country?
A Gallup poll of 1008 adults conducted from December 12 to December 13, 2007, found that 67% of Americans view an Obama victory in Iowa as a sign of a serious challenge to Hillary, while 31% consider it a temporary victory.
But when Americans were asked if Hillary lost, rather than if Obama won, they results reversed. 70% said it would be a temporary setback when asked the question this way while 28% said it would be a sign of serious trouble.
It seems that Americans do not have firm opinions regarding what the impact of an Iowa win should be. This poll is consistent with the widely held belief, therefore, that Iowa will have a limited impact nationally. See the Gallup Poll.
Americans Tired of Iowa and New Hampshire Sucking Up All Presidential Aspirants' Attention
- Poll: Nation Tired of Iowa-NH First
- AP | January 1, 2008
Shift in Hispanic Party ID
According to the Pew Hispanic Center a dramatic shift has taken place in the party identification of Hispanics. Their polling finds that 57% of Hispanics identify with the Democratic Party as opposed to only 23% who identify with the Republican Party. This 34% gap represents a 13 point jump from July of 2006 when the gap was 21%. See the poll here.
Illegal Immigrant Issues
60% favor permitting illegal immigrants without criminal records who have lived in the United States for several years to begin the process of becoming a citizen by registering that they are in the country, paying a fine and learning English, among other requirements. 15% oppose this idea. 33% oppose the idea that illegal immigrants should be permitted access to social services such as receiving in-state college tuition discounts, food stamps, emergency room treatment and the idea that they should be able to obtain drivers licenses. Find the L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll here.
Hillary wins big in Lesbian, Gay and Bisexual National Primary
Among 501 likely voters in the Democratic primary Clinton leads with 63%, Obama at 22%, Edwards at 7%, and Kucinich at 5%. Among 78 likely voters in the Republican primary Giuliani defeats McCain 50% to 23%. Romney follows with 11% and Thompson at 10%. Poll
Birth Control
37% of Americans prefer that public schools only provide birth control to students whose parents have consented while 30% favor offering it to everyone regardless of parental consent. 30% prefer that it not be offered by schools at all. Poll
Ghosts and Afterlife
52% believe in ghosts as opposed to 45% who do not. 55% think it's possible to communicate with the afterlife while 40% do not. I was surprised by that one. Find this one at Survey USA's website
More "Interest" In Democratic Primary
Clinton maintains leads over most potential Republican candidates. See Head to Head Matchups. One possible explanation for this lies in the fact that a great many more people know about Clinton running for the Democratic primary than any Republican. Public familiarity with Democrats is much higher than for Republicans. Specifically, 81% can name a Democratic candidate if unprompted compared to only 59% for Republicans. One could interpret these numbers in two ways. First, one might argue that more people can name a Democrat, mostly Clinton, because more interest exists in the Democratic candidate. Alternatively, one can argue that because more people know Clinton is running, perhaps because of name recognition, her highly public role over the last fifteen years or media coverage, more people choose her in hypothetical matchups thereby artificially inflating her numbers. See the complete story by The Pew Research Center.