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PRIMARY POLL CENTER

DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
Obama Leads by 9.3%  (Final Average for Democratic Nomination)
Poll
Dates
Sample
MoE
Obama
Clinton
The Ref's Averages
 5/21-6/2
850V
4.0
51.3
42.0
Rasmussen (4 Day Tracking)
 5/30-6/2 900LV 4.0 49 42
Gallup (3 Day Tracking)
 5/31-6/2 1273LV 3.0 52 43
5/21-5/25 618RV - 54 41
5/21-5/22 608RV 5.0 50 42

   

REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION
McCain Leads by 29.2% (Final Average for Republican Nomination)
Poll Dates Sample MoE McCain Huckabee Paul
The Ref's Averages
 2/19-3/3
580V
4.6
56.0
26.8
7.3
Rasmussen (4 Day Tracking)
 2/29-3/3 800LV 4.0 51 31 9
Gallup (3 Day Tracking)
 2/29-3/2 944LV 3.0 64 19 5
2/22-2/24 381RV 5.0 53 27 8
2/21-2/24 829Adults 4.0 61 23 4
2/20-2/24 482RV 5.0 61 23 -
2/19-2/20 294RV 6.0 51 34 7
*Polls of adults, as opposed to registered or likely voters, are not included in our averages because they are less predictive.

STATE POLLS

CLICK ON A STATE TO SEE THE LATEST POLL NUMBERS

*Pollsters Have Not Surveyed Every State

 

    California Colorado Florida Georgia Iowa Maryland Michigan Missouri New Hampshire New Jersey Nevada North Carolina Ohio Pennsylvania South Carolina Texas Virginia Wisconsin Arizona New York Alabama Connecticut Delaware Illinois Massachusetts Minnesota Oklahoma Tennessee Utah Rhode Island Vermont Indiana Kentucky West Virginia                         

NATIONAL HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUPS

Obama (D) vs. McCain (R)
Obama Leads by 1.0%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain
Obama
The Ref's Averages
5/21-6/2
 2111V
3.1
45.2
46.2
5/30-6/2 1600V 3.0 46 46
5/28-5/29, 5/31-6/2 4397RV 2.0 46 45
5/30-6/1 RV 4.0 44 47
5/21-5/25 1242RV - 44 47
5/21-5/22 1205RV 3.5 46 46
5/20-5/21 1000Adults 4.0 41 43
5/15-5/18 1076LV 3.0 40 48
5/14-5/15 1000Adults 4.0 42 39
5/12-5/18 953Adults - 37 48
5/11-5/14 1000LV   47 49
5/8-5/12 1745RV - 40 47
5/8-5/11 1122Adults 4.0 44 51
5/7-5/8 800LV 3.5 43 48
5/1-5/8 1986RV 3.0 40 46
5/1-5/3 803LV 4.0 44 51
4/30-5/4 755RV 3.6 42 46
5/1-5/3 601RV - 51 40
4/30-5/3 803RV 3.5 43 47
4/28-4/30 906RV 3.0 45 49
4/28-4/29 400LV 5.0 46 43
4/25-4/29 956RV 3.0 45 45
4/25-4/28 1006RV 3.1 43 46
4/23-4/27 1323RV - 44 50
4/23-4/27 760RV 3.1 44 46
4/24-4/25 1203RV 3.5 44 47
4/18-4/20 1016RV 3.0 44 47
4/17-4/20 802RV 3.5 44 45
4/16-4/17 1209RV 3.0 44 48
4/10-4/13 1049LV 4.3 45 45
4/10-4/13 1197Adults 3.0 44 49
4/7-4/9 749RV 3.6 45 45
3/28-4/2 1196RV 3.0 42 47
3/28-3/31 799RV 3.5 46 44
3/24-3/25 800RV - 42 44
3/19-3/22 1217RV - 43 49
3/18-3/19 900RV 3.0 44 43
3/15-3/18 1067Adults 3.0 43 48
3/14-3/15 685LV 4.0 47 49
3/13-3/14 1004LV 3.2 46 40
3/7-3/10 1012RV 3.1 44 47
3/6-3/9 1604RV 2.5 45 43
3/5-3/6 1215RV 3.5 45 46
3/4 1041RV - 46 46
2/28-3/2 1126Adults 3.0 40 52
2/28-3/2 802RV 3.5 38 47
2/22-2/24 755RV 3.1 41 51
2/21-2/25 1246RV 3.0 44 42
2/20-2/24 1115RV 3.0 38 50
2/21-2/24 1653LV 3.0 48 47
2/20-2/24 1240RV 3.5 45 50
2/19-2/20 900RV 3.0 43 47
2/14-2/17 803RV 3.5 40 48
2/13-2/16 928LV - 40 47
2/8-2/10 706LV - 46 50
2/7-2/10 1029Adults 3.1 42 48
2/1-2/4 1000LV - 41 48
2/1-2/3 974RV 4.5 44 52
1/31-2/2 855RV 3.4 43 45
1/30-2/1 1249Adults 3.0 46 49
1/30-1/31 900RV 3.0 43 44
1/29-1/31 1000LV - 48 47
1/25-1/27 1200LV 3.0 47 41
1/10-1/13 1106LV 3.0 50 45
1/10-1/12 803RV 3.5 39 41
1/9-1/10 840RV 3.5 48 49
1/4-1/6 800LV 3.5 46 43
*We exclude polls of "Adults" rather than registered or likely voters because they are much less reliable.
Clinton (D) vs. McCain (R)
Clinton Leads by 2.6%
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
McCain
Clinton
The Ref's Averages
5/21-6/2
 2111V
3.1
44.4
47.0
5/28-5/29, 5/31-6/2 4397RV 2.0 45 46
5/29-6/1 1600V 3.0 46 44
5/30-6/1 RV 4.0 43 49
5/21-5/25 1242RV - 44 48
5/21-5/22 1205RV 3.5 44 48
5/20-5/21 1000Adults 4.0 40 45
5/15-5/18 1076LV 3.0 43 43
5/14-5/15 1000Adults 4.0 40 44
5/12-5/18 953Adults - 39 44
5/11-5/14 1000LV   51 53
5/8-5/12 1745RV - 41 46
5/8-5/11 1122Adults 4.0 46 49
5/7-5/8 800LV 3.5 46 45
5/1-5/8 1986RV 3.0 38 47
5/1-5/3 803LV 4.0 49 46
4/30-5/4 755RV 3.6 42 47
5/1-5/3 601RV - 41 53
4/30-5/3 803RV 3.5 43 46
4/28-4/30 906RV 3.0 44 49
4/28-4/29 400LV 5.0 44 45
4/25-4/29 956RV 3.0 43 48
4/25-4/28 1006RV 3.1 44 45
4/23-4/27 1323RV - 45 49
4/23-4/27 760RV 3.1 41 50
4/24-4/25 1203RV 3.5 45 48
4/18-4/20 1016RV 3.0 44 50
4/17-4/20 802RV 3.5 45 45
4/16-4/17 1209RV 3.0 43 47
4/10-4/13 1049LV 4.3 46 41
4/10-4/13 1197Adults 3.0 48 45
4/7-4/9 749RV 3.6 45 48
3/28-4/2 1196RV 3.0 43 48
3/28-3/31 799RV 3.5 50 41
3/24-3/25 800RV - 46 44
3/19-3/22 1217RV - 44 49
3/18-3/19 900RV 3.0 43 46
3/15-3/18 1067Adults 3.0 44 46
3/14-3/15 685LV 4.0 46 51
3/13-3/14 1004LV 3.2 48 40
3/7-3/10 1012RV 3.1 45 47
3/6-3/9 1604RV 2.5 47 45
3/5-3/6 1215RV 3.5 46 48
3/4 1041RV - 46 48
2/28-3/2 1126Adults 3.0 44 50
2/22-2/24 755RV 3.1 43 48
2/21-2/25 1246RV 3.0 46 40
2/20-2/24 1115RV 3.0 46 46
2/21-2/24 1653LV 3.0 50 46
2/20-2/24 1240RV 3.5 50 43
2/19-2/20 900RV 3.0 47 44
2/14-2/17 803RV 3.5 48 40
2/13-2/16 928LV - 50 38
2/8-2/10 706LV - 48 49
2/7-2/10 1029Adults 3.1 45 46
2/1-2/4 1000LV - 46 46
2/1-2/3 974RV 4.5 47 50
1/31-2/2 855RV 3.4 45 41
1/30-2/1 1249Adults 3.0 49 46
1/30-1/31 900RV 3.0 45 44
1/29-1/31 1000LV - 48 45
1/25-1/27 1200LV 3.0 48 40
1/10-1/13 1106LV 3.0 50 47
1/10-1/12 803RV 3.5 47 43
1/9-1/10 840RV 3.5 48 50
1/9-1/10 800LV 3.5 49 38
12/18-12/19 900RV 3.0 47 42
12/6-12/9 912RV 3.0 50 48
11/21-11/26 9150LV 1.0 42 38
11/11-11/14 897RV 4.0 44 50
11/13-11/14 900RV 3.0 49 46
10/19-10/22 1039RV 3.0 38 48
9/25-9/26 900RV
39
46
*We exclude polls of "Adults" rather than registered or likely voters because they are much less reliable.
Clinton (D) vs. Huckabee (R) (DROPPED OUT)
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Clinton
Huckabee
The Ref's Averages
1/4-1/13
887V
3.4
49.3
42.8
1/10-1/13 1106LV 3.0 51 45
1/10-1/12 803RV 3.5 48 39
1/9-1/10 840RV 3.5 56 42
1/4-1/6 800LV 3.5 42 45
12/18-12/19 900RV 3.0 47 38
12/14-12/17 1008Adults 3.1 46 44
12/14-12/16 906RV 3.0 53 44
12/6-12/9 912RV 3.0 54 44
11/19-11/20 800LV 3.5 46 45
11/21-11/26 9150LV 1.0 38 42
11/2-11/4 1200LV 3.0 46 43
Obama (D) vs. Huckabee (R) (DROPPED OUT)
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Obama
Huckabee
The Ref's Averages
1/4-1/13
887V
3.4
52.5
38.8
1/10-1/13 1106LV 3.0 53 43
1/10-1/12 803LV 3.5 53 30
1/9-1/10 840RV 3.5 59 39
1/4-1/06 800LV 3.5 45 43
Clinton (D) vs. Romney (R) (DROPPED OUT)
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Clinton
Romney
The Ref's Averages
1/29-2/3
 932V
3.6
50.8
40.8
2/1-2/3 974RV 4.5 56 41
1/31-2/2 855RV 3.4 48 42
1/30-2/1 1249Adults 3.0 53 41
1/30-1/31 900RV 3.0 50 36
1/29-1/31 1000LV - 49 44
1/11-1/13 1200LV 3.5 47 41
1/10-1/12 803RV 3.5 49 37
1/9-1/10 840RV 3.5 58 40
12/17-12/18 800LV 4.5 43 44
12/14-12/16 906RV 3.0 52 46
12/9-12/12 1000LV - 50 44
12/6-12/9 912RV 3.0 54 43
11/30-12/03 1245RV - 47 39
11/21-11/26 9150LV 1.0 40 43
11/11-11/14 897RV 4.0 54 38
11/13-11/14 900RV 3.0 50 37
10/23-10/29 1636RV 2.4 48 38
10/19-10/22 1039RV 3.0 49 34
10/18-10/21 855RV 3.4 46 37
9/7-9/10
1002RV
3.1
51
38
Obama (D) vs. Romney (R) (DROPPED OUT)
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Obama
Romney
The Ref's Averages
1/29-2/3
 932V
3.6
53.3
37.8
2/1-2/3 974RV 4.5 59 36
1/31-2/2 855RV 3.4 50 41
1/30-2/1 1249Adults 3.0 59 34
1/30-1/31 900RV 3.0 51 33
1/29-1/31 1000LV - 53 41
1/11-1/13 1200LV 3.5 49 37
1/10-1/12 803LV 3.5 56 26
1/9-1/10 840RV 3.5 59 40
Clinton (D) vs. Thompson (DROPPED OUT) (R)
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Clinton
Thompson
The Ref's Averages
11/13-11/26
2937V
2.9
47.0
42.0
11/21-11/26 9150LV 1.0 40 44
11/19-11/20 800LV 3.5 46 44
11/11-11/14 897RV 4.0 53 40
11/13-11/14 900RV 3.0 49 40
10/19-10/22 1039RV 3.0 49 38
9/25-9/26 900RV   48 35
9/7-9/10
1002RV
3.1
50
41
Clinton (D) vs. Giuliani (R) (DROPPED OUT)
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Clinton
Giuliani
The Ref's Averages
1/9-1/15
814V
3.5
50.0
41.3
1/14-1/15 800LV 3.5 45 42
1/10-1/12 803RV 3.5 50 40
1/9-1/10 840RV 3.5 55 42
12/17-12/18 800LV 4.5 44 45
12/14-12/17 1008Adults 3.1 46 43
12/14-12/16 906RV 3.0 49 48
12/9-12/12 1000LV - 50 44
12/06-12/09 912RV 3.0 51 45
11/30-12/03 1245RV - 46 42
11/21-11/26 9150LV 1.0 40 43
11/11-11/14 897RV 4.0 49 44
11/13-11/14 900RV 3.0 47 43
11/1-11/5 1509 Adults 2.5 46 45
10/23-10/29 1636RV 2.4 43 45
10/19-10/22 1039RV 3.0 47 41
10/18-10/21 855RV 3.4 43 39
9/25-9/26 900RV   46 39
9/7-9/10
1002RV
3.1
43
42
Obama (D) vs. Giuliani (R) (DROPPED OUT)
Poll
Date
Sample
MoE
Obama
Giuliani
The Ref's Averages
1/9-1/15
814V
3.5
52.3
38.0
1/14-1/15 800LV 3.5 47 41
1/10-1/12 803RV 3.5 54 33
1/9-1/10 840RV 3.5 56 40