Refs Call: Obama Needed an Edwards Second Place Finish
Winning South Carolina is not enough for Barack Obama to stem the tide of Hillary's momentum toward the nomination. Absent an Edwards second place finish in South Carolina, Hillary's huge leads in the big states will remain.
Although most Democratic primaries and caucuses award delegates proportionally, where the second place finisher collects a percentage of delegates proportional to their percentage of the vote, Obama will need more than second place finishes in coming states to secure the nomination.
Not only will he need more than second place finishes, he also cannot afford to lose by 25 points in Florida, 24 points in New York, 14 points in New Jersey and 15 points in California, the margins by which Hillary leads in those states in the Ref's Averages. Such lopsided defeats will give Hillary the nomination. Although Florida had its delegates taken away by the DNC for scheduling an early primary, by the way, the Committee will likely restore those delegates or a portion of them come convention time.
To shrink those Hillary leads and also to pick off a few big states of for himself, Obama needed the Democratic base to seriously question her candidacy. A loss to John Edwards, a now woefully performing candidate nationwide, would have caused Democrats to question Hillary's electability enough to switch to Obama in the later states. As it turned out South Carolina will represent nothing more than a footnote on the way to the big states that will put Hillary in command on February 5th.
The Ref - 12:42 PM
Ref's Call: Who is More Electable, McCain or Romney?
If one looks at the current head to head polls he or she will find that McCain beats Hillary while Romney loses to her by a substantial margin. Two reasons explain this difference in performance.
First, name recognition gives McCain an advantage over Romney. While we political junkies like to think that most people pay close attention to politics, most do not. When Romney receives media coverage for a prolonged period of time more people will know him and his poll numbers against Democrats will naturally increase.
Second, voter turnout, as in every election, will determine the winner. While McCain performs well among those called at home by pollsters, he must rely on fickle Independents and conservatives, who do not believe McCain shares their values, to actually turn out and elect him. Turnout represents the trickiest calculation of any pollster and one can reasonably assume that McCain, a man who straddles political groups, will poll better than his actual vote. Hillary will have a strong core of liberals and women. Her opponent must posses a strong core of support and McCain does not have one.
Third, superficial matters make a difference in presidential politics. Americans have not concentrated much on the candidates and when they do McCain might not stand up well to close scrutiny because of his age. When one considers the contrast between McCain and Obama he or she sees that McCain looks old and disconnected from young people. While this fact makes us uncomfortable, it nevertheless moves votes.
Fourth, McCain admits he possesses weaknesses in an economic discussion. Romney will dominate economic debates. Iraq will likely continue to fade in importance in the fall while the economy will dominate the discussion. Romney compares favorably against Clinton and Obama on economic issues while McCain draws even at best.
Romney, although he trails in the head to head polls, likely represents a more electable candidate for Republicans for the above reasons. Republican voters in Florida and around the nation will elevate the electability question above most other issues in the coming days. Whether they consider Romney or McCain more electable will probably determine the winner. Romney, despite the current polls, represents the more electable candidate because of his age and appearance, his strength on the economy and his stronger connection with the Republican base.
The Ref - 12:14 AM
Very popular Governor Crist of Florida endorses John McCain
The Ref - 7:50 PM
AP reports that Obama Runs Away With SC Primary
NBC reports that Hillary will finish in second place
The Ref - 7:42 PM
Fox News reports that Obama is winning one quarter of whites, including half of all whites under age thirty. Also wins 81% of black vote. Hillary is barely ahead of Edwards.
See exit polls from CNN here
The Ref - 7:03 PM
So much for archaic notions like learning is its own reward . . .
Struggling students get new money making opportunity
The Ref - 6:37 PM
Obama Buys Edwards Endorsement?
Novak reports that "John Edwards will be named attorney general in an Obama administration."
The Ref - 5:39 PM
Obama badly needs a big South Carolina bounce
How much will he win by? Will this win improve his polls in later states where Hillary is leading by large margins? See the Democratic poll averages for Florida, New York, New Jersey and California.
The Ref - 5:07 PM
Bill Bradley reports live from South Carolina.
The Ref - 4:10 PM
A contribution from the leftward Dem Daily
Why South Carolina and the rest of the country should pick Edwards. Also, a shot at Reagan. What the Reagan-Flap Really Says about Obama, Clinton, and Edwards
The Ref - 5:17 PM
There is no end to the conspiracy theories on some websites. According to some, Mitt Romney used an earpiece in the MSNBC debate. But why would the audience hear an earpiece? If an earpiece were this loud Mitt Romney would go deaf in that ear. Rather comical. Another seemingly credible website hypothesized that MSNBC rigged the debate for Romney.
Rather than rely on a conspiracy theory, however, one can reasonably conclude that one of the reporters or candidates whispered their own answer to the question, thinking aloud. MSNBC anchors and analysts, with the notable exception of Pat Buchanan, can barely shield their contempt for Romney on most nights. One should find it difficult to believe that the network decided to give him a boost by rigging a debate and helping him with the answers.
MSNBC's analysts gave Romney positive reviews after the Florida debate because he performed well, not for any nefarious reason.
The Ref - 12:53 PM
- Florida Primary: ARG - McCain +5, Clinton +38; Survey USA - McCain +2, Clinton +17
- South Carolina Democratic Primary: Survey USA - Obama +13; Public Policy Polling - Obama +20; Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby - Obama +13; Ebony/Jet - Obama +10
- National Polls: Gallup - McCain +11, Clinton +16
The Ref - 1/26/08 3:07 AM
The Ref Does Not Choose the Following Video Content. To see the Ref's videos, CLICK HERE..