Conservative verses Liberal Media: McCain relies on old allies, but it will probably backfire
As chronicled below, Tim Russert allowed McCain to get away with his dishonest attack on Romney on Meet the Press Sunday. Unfortunately for McCain, Meet the Press airs on Sunday and the Florida primary is on Tuesday. That means Monday separates the two.
As Rich Lowry's article on National Review Online demonstrates, McCain's attack will lead to a heartburn inspiring Monday for McCain as the conservative media attempts to correct the record. Lowry writes, "I have a hard time imagining McCain making this kind of dishonest accusation against a Democrat—it would be uncivil and dishonorable. But making it against a fellow Republican running to his right? No problem." See McCain's Dishonest Attack.
One can only guess at the manner with which Rush Limbaugh attacks McCain on Monday for his false attack on Romney, but one need not guess as to whether or not he will do it along with the rest of the conservative talk radio world.
McCain's allies simply do not possess much credibility with a large portion of the mostly conservative electorate that will vote on Tuesday in Florida. He has two built in advantages, the elderly and veterans both tend to like McCain. McCain's manic Monday to come, however, just may turn some of them off too.
McCain's internal polls must have indicated that he had fallen behind because surely he knew that making this attack on Romney represented a risk. Perhaps the risk will pay off, but one must question whether McCain anticipated the anger the move would cause among conservatives. Certainly some conservatives who were leaning toward Giuliani and Huckabee may just reconsider. We will find out on Tuesday.
The Ref 12:59 AM | Permalink
Latest Polls - Click the Ref's Averages Links Below to See Today's New Polls
Florida Poll Averages - Romney +0.1%, Clinton +25.4%
Colorado Poll Averages - Romney +19%, Obama +2%
National Poll Averages - McCain +6.6%, Clinton +10.0%; The latest Rasmussen Reports National Poll shows a tie between McCain and Romney at 27% each. As the only national poll over the last two days we cannot determine if this is the beginning of a national trend.
The Ref - 11:35 PM
CNN's Jeffrey Toobin: McCain is Lying About Romney
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Clintons abandoned by the other Democratic dynasty as Kennedy Plans to Back Obama Over Clinton
The Ref - 7:18 PM
McCain Distorts Romney's Words on Meet the Press
McCain has stated that Mitt Romney was in favor of timetables for withdrawal from Iraq over the last two days. He based this statement on a Romney quote from a Good Morning America interview on April 3, 2007. The full quote and video follow.
Question: Do you believe that there should be a timetable in withdrawing the troops?
Romney: There's no question but that the president and prime minister al-Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about, but those shouldn't be for public pronouncement. You don't want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you're going to be gone. You want to have a series of things you want to see accomplished in terms of the strength of the Iraqi military and the Iraqi police and the leadership of the Iraqi government.
Question: So private, you wouldn't do it publicly because the president has said flat out that he will veto anything the Congress passes about a timetable for troop withdrawals. As president, would you do the same?
Romney: Well of course, can you imagine the setting where during the second World War we said to the Germans, gee if we haven't reached the Rhine by this date why we'll go home, or if we haven't gotten this accomplished we'll pull up and leave. You don't publish that to your enemy or they just simply lie in wait until that time. So of course you have to work together to create timetables and milestones but you don't do that with the opposition.
Russert allowed McCain to quote only the first part of Romney's comment where he said that the president and prime minister al-Maliki should have their own private timetables and milestones. A fair questioner would have then cited the rest of Romney's comments where he took the same firm position against timetables for withdrawal that President Bush held. The quote follows:
Russert: Governor Romney said he never suggested a specific timetable. You're being dishonest. You should apologize.
McCain: I see, well you flash these on the screen all the time, let me just, let me just see. He was asked, 'Should there be a timetable for withdrawing the troops.' 'Well there's no question but that the president and prime minister al-Maliki have to have a series of timetables and milestones that they speak about, but they shouldn't be for public pronouncement. You don't want the enemy to understand how long they have to wait in the weeds until you're going to be gone."
When Russert asked McCain if Romney was waiving the white flag of surrender and suggesting surrender McCain would not answer the question directly. Instead he mentioned Hillary Clinton's timetable and seemed to try to equate what Romney said with what Hillary said.
Clearly McCain is trying to sell the notion that Romney was for the kind of timetable that Hillary Clinton is for. McCain knows that this is false which is why he hedged when Russert asked him directly if Romney was for surrender.
Russert should have, however, brought out the full quote from the GMA interview. Meet the Press is famous for its quotes. It seems that they did not want the full quote on their show. We will provide the video when it becomes available.
The Ref - 1:14 PM | Permalink
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January 26, 2008
Refs Call: Obama Needed an Edwards Second Place Finish
Winning South Carolina is not enough for Barack Obama to stem the tide of Hillary's momentum toward the nomination. Absent an Edwards second place finish in South Carolina, Hillary's huge leads in the big states will remain.
Although most Democratic primaries and caucuses award delegates proportionally, where the second place finisher collects a percentage of delegates proportional to their percentage of the vote, Obama will need more than second place finishes in coming states to secure the nomination.
Not only will he need more than second place finishes, he also cannot afford to lose by 25 points in Florida, 24 points in New York, 14 points in New Jersey and 15 points in California, the margins by which Hillary leads in those states in the Ref's Averages. Such lopsided defeats will give Hillary the nomination. Although Florida had its delegates taken away by the DNC for scheduling an early primary, by the way, the Committee will likely restore those delegates or a portion of them come convention time.
To shrink those Hillary leads and also to pick off a few big states of for himself, Obama needed the Democratic base to seriously question her candidacy. A loss to John Edwards, a now woefully performing candidate nationwide, would have caused Democrats to question Hillary's electability enough to switch to Obama in the later states. As it turned out South Carolina will represent nothing more than a footnote on the way to the big states that will put Hillary in command on February 5th.
The Ref - 12:42 PM | Permalink
Ref's Call: Who is More Electable, McCain or Romney?
If one looks at the current head to head polls he or she will find that McCain beats Hillary while Romney loses to her by a substantial margin. Four reasons explain why McCain's superior performance in the head to head polls today does not translate into rendering him the superior candidate for the Republicans.
First, name recognition gives McCain an advantage over Romney. While we political junkies like to think that most people pay close attention to politics, most do not. When Romney receives media coverage for a prolonged period of time more people will know him and his poll numbers against Democrats will naturally increase.
Second, voter turnout, as in every election, will determine the winner. While McCain performs well among those called at home by pollsters, he must rely on fickle Independents and conservatives, who do not believe McCain shares their values, to actually turn out and elect him. Turnout represents the trickiest calculation of any pollster and one can reasonably assume that McCain, a man who straddles political groups, will poll better than his actual vote. Hillary will have a strong core of liberals and women. Her opponent must posses a strong core of support and McCain does not have one.
Third, superficial matters make a difference in presidential politics. Americans have not concentrated much on the candidates and when they do McCain might not stand up well to close scrutiny because of his age. When one considers the contrast between McCain and Obama he or she sees that McCain looks old and disconnected from young people. While this fact makes us uncomfortable, it nevertheless moves votes.
Fourth, McCain admits he possesses weaknesses in an economic discussion. Romney will dominate economic debates. Iraq will likely continue to fade in importance in the fall while the economy will dominate the discussion. Romney compares favorably against Clinton and Obama on economic issues while McCain draws even at best.
Romney, although he trails in the head to head polls, likely represents a more electable candidate for Republicans for the above reasons. Republican voters in Florida and around the nation will elevate the electability question above most other issues in the coming days. Whether they consider Romney or McCain more electable will probably determine the winner. Romney, despite the current polls, represents the more electable candidate because of his age and appearance, his strength on the economy and his stronger connection with the Republican base.
The Ref - 12:14 AM | Permalink
Very popular Governor Crist of Florida endorses John McCain
The Ref - 7:50 PM
AP reports that Obama Runs Away With SC Primary
NBC reports that Hillary will finish in second place
The Ref - 7:42 PM
Fox News reports that Obama is winning one quarter of whites, including half of all whites under age thirty. Also wins 81% of black vote. Hillary is barely ahead of Edwards.
See exit polls from CNN here
The Ref - 7:03 PM
So much for archaic notions like learning is its own reward . . .
Struggling students get new money making opportunity
The Ref - 6:37 PM
Obama Buys Edwards Endorsement?
Novak reports that "John Edwards will be named attorney general in an Obama administration."
The Ref - 5:39 PM
Obama badly needs a big South Carolina bounce
How much will he win by? Will this win improve his polls in later states where Hillary is leading by large margins? See the Democratic poll averages for Florida, New York, New Jersey and California.
The Ref - 5:07 PM
Bill Bradley reports live from South Carolina.
The Ref - 4:10 PM
A contribution from the leftward Dem Daily
Why South Carolina and the rest of the country should pick Edwards. Also, a shot at Reagan. What the Reagan-Flap Really Says about Obama, Clinton, and Edwards
The Ref - 5:17 PM
There is no end to the conspiracy theories on some websites. According to some, Mitt Romney used an earpiece in the MSNBC debate. But why would the audience hear an earpiece? If an earpiece were this loud Mitt Romney would go deaf in that ear. Rather comical. Another seemingly credible website hypothesized that MSNBC rigged the debate for Romney.
Rather than rely on a conspiracy theory, however, one can reasonably conclude that one of the reporters or candidates whispered their own answer to the question, thinking aloud. MSNBC anchors and analysts, with the notable exception of Pat Buchanan, can barely shield their contempt for Romney on most nights. One should find it difficult to believe that the network decided to give him a boost by rigging a debate and helping him with the answers.
MSNBC's analysts gave Romney positive reviews after the Florida debate because he performed well, not for any nefarious reason.
The Ref - 12:53 PM
- Florida Primary: ARG - McCain +5, Clinton +38; Survey USA - McCain +2, Clinton +17
- South Carolina Democratic Primary: Survey USA - Obama +13; Public Policy Polling - Obama +20; Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby - Obama +13; Ebony/Jet - Obama +10
- National Polls: Gallup - McCain +11, Clinton +16
The Ref - 1/26/08 3:07 AM